Spain political uncertainty

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olive
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Spain political uncertainty

Postby olive » Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:25 pm

As I read it , we are about six weeks away from a second election unless I have missed something.

I cannot see a second round changing the voting pattern much. What happens in that case?

It was interesting to see that Brussels issued a carefully worded statement along the lines of they hoped to see a government committed to continuing their line! I think they did the same after the Portuguese elections.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:56 pm

The election of Carles Puigdemont the new Catalan president from the separatist hotbed of Girona will create even more uncertainty.

Interesting times.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby Manchesteral » Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:39 pm

In my opinion there's nothing uncertain about the future of Spain, if it becomes a socialist state then the borrowing and spending will become worse, balance of payments will become **** than ever unemployment worsening, etc, they will need a dose of the Greek medicine before they wake up and realise that you can't spend what you don't have, this will all happen in the very near future !!

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:25 pm

I saw the other day experts :wink: suggesting that PP and Podemos were most likely to gain from an election rerun. Presumably the Cs having not done very well would lose votes to the PP. And I can see disillusioned PSOE moving to Podemos now the latter have shown there is a real chance they could take power. But will voters change from right to left or vice versa? As you say Olive we may end up more or less where we started. I guess if so a government of national unity may be one option with PP and PSOE (with a new leader??) co-operating (through gritted teeth :D ) to save the old school and stop the new kids :lol:

All seems very bad timing. I'm thinking Catalunya will never have a better time just to jump ship while the enemy is in total disarray. Not saying they will but there will never be a better opportunity to do it unilaterally. The one thing that might stop them I suppose is the promise of a ref from an even stronger Podemos.

As Mark says "Interesting times".
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby Lavanda » Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:03 pm

Yes, it's 'interesting' and it's clear voters in so many countries thought Europe are uncertain, undecided and polarised. The only gainer will be the EU who will ride to the rescue on a white horse anytime soon. As for Catalunya, they seem just as undecided and it's only Mas stepping aside to allow his stooge with the unpronounceable name to take power that has resolved their mess — for now. Don't forget that only 48% of the voters voted for independence and that's not a majority by anyone's reckoning. Not that it will stop the pro-independence mob from keeping going until they get the result they want. Bit like the EU, in fact. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:03 am

Lavanda wrote:Not that it will stop the pro-independence mob from keeping going until they get the result they want. Bit like the EU, in fact. :lol: :lol: :lol:


Lavanda nail on the head. But equally difficult to think of a workable solution. Remembering the Scot Nats understood the question was a once in a generation type thing. Now they are saying that collective UK decisions could at any time trigger the need for another referendum. And as you say if they ask often enough .........

But equally Rajoy saying the whole Spanish population should vote is loonisy. Can't ever see the unemployed of Cadiz voting to chop of 20% of the profitable bit of the Spanish economy :lol:

Of course if the EU didn't exist I'm sure Catalunya would have gone some time ago. And as you say the EU may well be the peace maker even if in an indirect way although I can't imagine any white horses, more gritted teeth :mrgreen:
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:44 pm

I don't agree with that.
Not everybody in the nationalists parts of Spain want Independence. In fact I doubt they could win an official referendum. When they had their unofficial one, 80 per cent didn't even bother to vote.

In my opinion they shouldn't even be given the opportunity to have a referendum. They cannot consider themselves to the same as Scotland because it doesn't and never has been an independent country.

The EU cannot be continually be used as a reason why things go wrong in EU countries. Even if there were no EU, individual countries wouldn't want Catalonia's push for Independence to be successful because it would offer a precedence which could used by other small independence movements to grow in other countries.

Cornwall could cite cultural differences and its language as a basis for Independence from the UK

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:24 pm

markwilding wrote:I don't agree with that.


Mark very interesting but not sure we disagree on much :)

markwilding wrote:Not everybody in the nationalists parts of Spain want Independence. In fact I doubt they could win an official referendum. When they had their unofficial one, 80 per cent didn't even bother to vote.


Agreed and it amazes me how the independence movement can dream of pushing ahead without a majority. But they appear to think they can.

markwilding wrote:In my opinion they shouldn't even be given the opportunity to have a referendum. They cannot consider themselves to the same as Scotland because it doesn't and never has been an independent country.


The problem I have with that is how far back in history can one go? And why should what one person calls a country have anything to do with it? Mercia was a country. There are many centuries in the past when what is now Catalunya was not part of a common Iberia entity.

markwilding wrote:The EU cannot be continually be used as a reason why things go wrong in EU countries.


Agreed

markwilding wrote:Even if there were no EU, individual countries wouldn't want Catalonia's push for Independence to be successful because it would offer a precedence which could used by other small independence movements to grow in other countries.


Kings have always defended their kingdoms and with military might tried to expand those kingdoms. Just because Spain doesn't want Catalunya to be independent doesn't for me justify why it shouldn't be.

I think what would be more useful than the EU defending the status quo would be if they presented a clear mechanism to allow the value of country splits and merges to be evaluated. I'm sure in most cases a fair assessment approach would lead most to see that the light is not worth the candle.

But it is essential for me that cultures are not suppressed by central governments.

markwilding wrote:Cornwall could cite cultural differences and its language as a basis for Independence from the UK


And if the majority of the people living in Cornwall want independence, after sufficient debate and data is presented (e.g. not romantic braveheart stuff) then I as a man from Watford would welcome it. I have no wish to enslave anyone 8)
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby gus-lopez » Sat Jan 16, 2016 9:28 pm

flyeogh wrote:[
But equally Rajoy saying the whole Spanish population should vote is loonisy. Can't ever see the unemployed of Cadiz voting to chop of 20% of the profitable bit of the Spanish economy :lol:

:

I think you'll find he is only stating what the spanish constitution says. Everyone has to vote.
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Sat Jan 16, 2016 10:05 pm

Gus I appreciate the guy hasn't the power to think logically and spouts whatever seems to meet his warped requirement. But what I don't understand is why he doesn't give what the majority of Catalunya wants, more autonomy, and persuades them that their best future is as part of Spain? It is not hard to do that.

The way he is going he could well force them out. If I was Catalan the more you told me 'you can't' the more I'd want to.

the one thing I can guarantee is that there will never be such a referendum where everyone votes :lol:

But I guess Rajoy will soon be yesterday's man so not to worry about him hopefully.
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby Lavanda » Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:59 am

I can't understand why people cannot get their heads around things that are 'not allowed', these days. Under the Spanish Constitution regions are not allowed complete independence and cannot be a separate country. Not allowed. That's not really hard to understand and most of us learn during infancy that some times are 'not allowed'.

I live on my own land. It's mine absolutely. I live in a house built from scratch that is mine. My borehole. My solar power. I'm completely independent, rely on on one, etc. etc. Yet, I cannot do what I like. There are bigger laws the just what I want. However, I'm not a vertically challenged man who needs to prove that my bits are bigger than everyone else's bits. Posturing. Playing. Politicians. :roll:

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:06 pm

For me honesty, human rights and responsible freedoms come before any constitution. And as the Spanish government has rather failed in these regards I think the constitution doesn't apply in regard to indy.

But beyond the academic arguments, constitution or not, there is very little the rest of Spain can do if Catalunya goes its' own way.

And telling anyone that they can't do something normally in my experience results in the opposite to the desired outcome.

But for me still the saddest thing is that the PP, PSOE or Cs cannot see that a referendum that results in Catalunya staying is there for the taking and the best outcome. That is providing it is done before Rajoy and his mates in particular increase the independence vote well beyond 50% with their aggressive dialog :wink:
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby Lavanda » Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:24 pm

There's a story kicking around that the leader of Podemos has been funded huge sums of money to make films or radio shows or some such thing through a company he owns called Fort Apache. The country paying the money is ... Iran. The story is hedged about with '...it's alleged that ...' but there's no smoke without fire and all politicians are intrinsically corrupt so ... interesting.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:03 pm

Mmmm understand the sentiment Lavanda but all politicians are clearly not corrupt. In Spain more than you desire might be corrupt but it still isn't all.

As for man didn't land on the moon, the Loch Ness Monster exists, the US blew up the twin towers, aliens are working in area 51, and Iglesias is paid by the Iranians, ............ I leave to the daily mail :wink:

ps: Made me smile when I was sent a photo of Sarah Palin with bubble "And you thought I was mad!!" :lol:
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:27 pm

Lavanda wrote:There's a story kicking around that the leader of Podemos has been funded huge sums of money to make films or radio shows or some such thing through a company he owns called Fort Apache. The country paying the money is ... Iran. The story is hedged about with '...it's alleged that ...' but there's no smoke without fire and all politicians are intrinsically corrupt so ... interesting.


Actually thinking about that it makes no sense. Can anyone explain:

Why he created the company and what it does?
Why PP, PSOE and Cs know nothing of this but it is general knowledge?
Who would want to see the film?
And what the Iranians would get out of it?

A little investigation shows that Fort Apache is a publicity outlet using YouTube. My own company would knock up the pages and templates for £50,000. So I wonder what the Iranian huge sums of money are for :lolno:
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby Lavanda » Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:22 am

As we may have a PSOE-Podemos government any time soon I've been doing some homework. Iglesias and his team are no political fools with degrees, professorships and experience in Venezuela and Bolivia coming out from their ears. Even the baby-faced election manager is no baby but a 33 year old experienced political activist and worker. They know what they think they are talking about and are very clever in appearing to be very open, above board and truthful, charming and reasonable. Looks and sounds promising and attractive to voters with no prospects and young people with no jobs.

Yet ... Socialism doesn't work in a capitalist society which, I suppose, is why they are anti capitalist. Where will the money come from to fund their Socialist agendas? Nationalising things? Confiscating things? Taxing things? I can't work out HOW they are going to achieve their plans. Anyone got any ideas?

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Sun Jan 24, 2016 3:28 pm

Lavanda that is a very good question and as a non socialist I have equal concerns. However if you look at how the current regime drains the lion's share of Spain's resources there must be tremendous scope for redistribution of funds and that would cost very little.

As you point out also in particular podemos have highly qualified individuals who have studied politics and economics. So you would have some better focussed and educated people contributing to debate at the highest level. Of course debate is one thing and practical implementation of new approaches in a society like Spain's is another.

For sure the one thing that is needed is a new tax system which actually collects taxes (rather than hoping people pay them). The number of times on forums like this one you see what difficulty people who want to pay taxes have simply illustrates how not paying tax is so easy. ****

Assuming a PSOE-Podemos coalition I think that extremes will be curtailed, as in all coalitions so I can't imagine massive rises in tax and borrowing to fund giveaways, even if the leftists' wanted that, to be a big issue.

But no matter what it can't be worse than the current situation.

**** To be fair to the current regime they have made some efforts at the high end as the trials of the princess and Messi demonstrate. But I'd only call it real progress if both go to prison and substantial amounts are recovered and fines paid (assuming of course that they are found to be guilty beyond doubt).
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby Berliner89 » Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:07 pm

Lavanda wrote:I can't understand why people cannot get their heads around things that are 'not allowed', these days. Under the Spanish Constitution regions are not allowed complete independence and cannot be a separate country. Not allowed. That's not really hard to understand and most of us learn during infancy that some times are 'not allowed'.

I live on my own land. It's mine absolutely. I live in a house built from scratch that is mine. My borehole. My solar power. I'm completely independent, rely on on one, etc. etc. Yet, I cannot do what I like. There are bigger laws the just what I want. However, I'm not a vertically challenged man who needs to prove that my bits are bigger than everyone else's bits. Posturing. Playing. Politicians. :roll:


You are so right, I do agree 100% with the above.

Also, as someone who was borned in a city, raised in another one, and has lived in 3 different countries already, it's very difficult for me to understand nationalism. I don't identify myself with the concept of any nation, but I believe that the differences that we have within our own countries are what makes us richer. There was a TED told some time ago that was really inspirational in this topic: Don't ask where I'm from, ask where I'm a local

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:07 pm

Berliner

it's very difficult for me to understand nationalism.


So presumably you wouldn't want to imprison a region within a country?

I remember smiling when the SNP rejected objections to their independance but then used the same arguments against the suggestion that The Shetlands may wish to remain in the Ruk :lol:
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:36 am

Did anyone watch the king inviting Sanchez to have a crack at forming a government and the interviews around it?

I thought Sanchez was very honest about what is required and the difficulty of achieving a workable coalition. And Rajoy looked like a spent force. But my money is still on another election. While Sanchez and Iglesias might be willing to concede sufficient to get a deal they still need other party support. And with podemos and ciudanos appearing to be miles apart, and any deal with separatists (17 seats in Catalunya alone) being a no go area I just can't see it working. But miracles do happen :wink:

But polling my Spanish family the general view is another election and Spain reverting once again to two parties. If that happens I think it would be the saddest thing in politics I've ever witnessed - but this is Spain :|
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