Spain political uncertainty

[olive]

answers to earlier q's.

A bad thing for the EU and Spain. They like Britains contribution. ( I don't know whether they meant money, power, or military.)

Spaniards have seen rural life improve during the EU. There are loads of signs saying "this rural road improved with EU money" The one past my house cost 140,000 euros of EU money. Then there are the grants to us farmers.

Agreed about the June election.

[flyeogh]

Sorry Olive been tied up (not literally but each to their own ) but thanks for that. Very interesting to get real spanish feedback.

And back to topic today is the last chance saloon. I think I might get the wine chilled, prepare the armchair, and get the TV warmed up. I'd still like to see a miracle but know I'll almost certainly be disappointed in the end.

But then in June/July we can do it all again so not soooo bad

[maureenscot]

I was a life long Labour supporter and not very fond of the type of negative nationalism that I had seen in some countries in recent history. So not a natural SNP supporter.
But a few years ago, I realised that in my 60odd years on this planet, Scotland had voted overwhelmingly for one party over and over again and got landed with another. Right now, we have very few, three I think, MPs from other parties. In the Scottish Government, all other parties have been slaughtered except the Greens. But we are still governed by the Eton mess. When this happens over and over, and you have a population of only 5 million, it eventually makes you think.
It was the younger generation who eventually convinced me with their arguments and what they wanted for their own future - self-determination, the party they vote for etc. I realised that for our small population we could never achieve this as part of the larger UK.

The greatest thing about the Referendum, for me, even though we lost this time with Project Fear, was the new engagement, the continuous meetings, which young folk set up themselves. Even where I live in the rural Highlands, I must have attended, and taxied for, at least a hundred!
All young people became political and tons of working class people who had never voted became political. People stopped playing gamers and watching telly every night. Everywhere you went the talk was politics, politics, politics. It was wonderful as I never thought I would see this kind of enthusiasm in my life again. Whole estates were out debating, arguing etc. Community spirit has returned. Folk are more helpful and humane. I am not making this up. My spirits have been up uplifted. We had all lost faith in politics and become apathetic and quite insular and probably selfish - trying to look after number one.

On the other hand, it can be quite frightening if the underdog has to listen to their more affluent regions wanting to break away. I have a wee place in a very rural, traditionally poor part of southern Italy. The residents there get fed up with their Northern 'masters' as they see it, going on about breaking away from them. Their politics are a shambles along with the other well-known issues which makes it very difficult. So maybe there is a people not too far away, who think they will never get good, honest corruption-free politics either.
So I feel quite lucky that our lot are very much more politically aware. I can only wish Spain luck. They seem always to need it. I have seen a lot of political enthusiasm in young folk in Spain as well. You are all right, dialogue argument and dialogue. Everybody needs to feel part of the discussion

[katy]

Interesting but how is it relevant to this thread

[maureenscot]

Because we have a thread that started off asking about political uncertainty, then drifted to independence, then Nationalism and various ones about Spanish politics, EU Brexit, comments about Scottish Referendum and a whole load more besides.

[flyeogh]

MaureenScot yes I see the relevance. For sure in Spain more are engaged in politics. But in Spain you are not looking at a Scottish Independance situation.

As you recognise Catalunya is rich in comparison with Spain that has many poor regions. And you are not looking at a simple separation of two parts. Next will be Basque country.

But back to topic I think if they are not very clever in the months prior to the election podemos could regret not letting Sanchez have a chance. It could be that the right are stronger after the next election and that Rajoy leads a PP/Cs coalition.

Watching Rajoy rabbiting on about democracy tonight personally made me feel sick. I just hope Rivera has done enough to take votes from him. Don't get me wrong I'm not a left fanatic and have never voted Labour. I don't really mind who governs in either Spain or the UK as long as they have support from the people, are honest and have at least half a brain

[maureenscot]

You are right Flyeogh. What is the general consenus of preference round your area? And what is the preference in general in Andalucía. I would imagine that there may be vast differences in regions. But maybe not?

[flyeogh]

Maureen enormous variation and with emigration to other regions and other countries, including the tradition of going to South America, being well accepted in Spain it is difficult to generalise. I've seen recently that 10% of all living persons born in Andalucia are in Catalunya!

But there is also a tradition to return to your roots when old especially in the north of Spain.

All very complex and here in the south there is an obvious lack of education among the poorer people which means you get more traditional voting. Some members of my spanish family vote PP no matter how corrupt they may be and even refer to better times in Franco's days. Utter jibberish of course. They were all poor as a family and they shared a flat with the parents in Franco's day. They now live in a 5 bedroom villa, can freely travel, can openly discuss politics and can even chat with more than 7 friends in a bar without being molested by the police. Memories are so short

Problems for the indies in Catalunya will of course in two ways be very similar to the Scottish situation: membership of the EU and how do you stop Catalans having the best of both worlds: Catalan and spanish passports, citizenship and rights, while the rest only have their spanish rights. It may be the currency issue also raises its' head but I'm not sure that wouldn't be easily sorted.

But in truth hopefully a formula of more autonomy can be found, everyone more or less happy, Barcelona still in La Liga (which to some Catalans is more important than the other stuff ), and everyone can move on. That's certainly what the Cat part of my family want

[markwilding]

If Cataluña does separate, I would certainly hope Barcelona would not to be able to continue play in the Liga.

People do often feel resentment to central government in regions but in my opinion that wouldn't change with separation. All that would happen is the resentment would be transferred to the new political capital.

One man's scare story is another man's possible scenario. There are Spanish companies based in the separatist regions and it would be inconceivable to me that they would not move operations back into Spain. Why would Spain continue to move it's products through the port of Bilbao if it were not in Spain anymore? They would just expand Santander and Gijon and use them instead.

As far as Scotland was concerned, I was hoping that they would stay in the union but I tried to keep an open mind to what was best for Scotland, By the end though, I felt the nationalists were not addressing people's reservations and were insisting on calling them scare stories. The question of the pound was one. Salmon insisted that Scotland could stay in the pound when it was not only Scotland which could make that decision. The rest of the UK would need to be a part of that process and my view would have been, not in the UK, then not in the pound.

[olive]

I have an English aunt in law that lives it Scottish Scotland. She was undecided over the merits of voting out or in in their referendum. Her many Scottish friends soon persuaded her that the right thing to do was be patriotic like them and vote for independence.

Probably the same in Catalunia.

More uncertainty for Spain in the coming months. Lets hope there aren't any huge "events" that will polarise people to vote differently.

[flyeogh]

If Cataluña does separate, I would certainly hope Barcelona would not to be able to continue play in the Liga.

And I'd hang, draw and quarter any who visited Spain ever again La Liga needs Barcelona just as much as Barcelona needs La Liga. And at the end of the day La Liga is a business. Are you suggesting that if Scotland had gained independance they would have kicked Berwick out of the Scottish League

One man's scare story is another man's possible scenario. There are Spanish companies based in the separatist regions and it would be inconceivable to me that they would not move operations back into Spain.

And who would pay the cost? You can in some circumstances move a bank but try moving a company that has material investments. Not so easy. As seen in the case of Scotland the companies moved registered offices. They didn't move efficient operations located in regions that offered qualified staff.

Why would Spain continue to move it's products through the port of Bilbao if it were not in Spain anymore? They would just expand Santander and Gijon and use them instead.

I assume "expand ..,. Gijon" is a joke

The truth is separation would lead to big expense by both elements. But Catalunya would survive. I doubt whether Spain as an entity would.

[markwilding]

And who would pay the cost? You can in some circumstances move a bank but try moving a company that has material investments. Not so easy. As seen in the case of Scotland the companies moved registered offices. They didn't move efficient operations located in regions that offered qualified staff..

In the case of Scotland nothing happened because they voted to stay in the Union.

The truth is separation would lead to big expense by both elements. But Catalunya would survive. I doubt whether Spain as an entity would.

Are you being serious? Of course Spain would survive. For Catalonia to get a referendum the Spanish constitution need changing. They would need to do it legally or no government will recognise it as a country.

[flyeogh]

In the case of Scotland nothing happened because they voted to stay in the Union.

Mark true they voted to stay in but to say nothing happened is not accurate. Many companies, including nearly all the banks, made a policy decision to move registered offices if the vote went against. But as in the case of RBS (a UK bank, not Scottish as the name might infer) they also stated clearly that they would not create job losses in Scotland beyond the HQ (a fairly small number).

The truth is separation would lead to big expense by both elements. But Catalunya would survive. I doubt whether Spain as an entity would.

Are you being serious? Of course Spain would survive. For Catalonia to get a referendum the Spanish constitution need changing. They would need to do it legally or no government will recognise it as a country.

I have no doubt the Basque country would get independence if Catalunya goes and The Canaries is an interesting situation. I guess I should have said Spain surviving as an entity anything like its' former self.

Yes you are right to say Catalunya going its' own way is difficult and even unlikely. But it is not impossible. Already Spain has 25% of elected representatives supporting a referendum and soon that number could be greater.

[Lavanda]

Podemos have started to fight amongst themselves. One side want power at any cost including going back on their word that the Catalonians can have a referendum. The other side think that no election promises should be broken. Iglesias has sacked a few people and others have resigned. His No.2, the baby-faced chap, has been marginalised. Yesterday Iglesias made a statement to the effect that dissent within the party will not be tolerated and everyone must sing from the same song sheet — his.

I love it when Communists hate discussion, other points of view and sharing power (and not normally much else either in spite of the ideology behind Communism). Is Iglesias heading down the Stalin road? Should his No.2 expect an ice pick through the head next while playing Trotsky to Iglesias's Stalin?

[Ramonazo]

Just wait to see. But don't be afraid nothing really bad can really happen. Everybody is interested in a stable government.

--
https://miorgasmo.com

[wollie]

I often wonder what is meant by a stable government?
it seems to me that there needs to be a bit of shift in what were traditional political global politics as there is a new social element in spain, Italy, Greece and Corbyn is moving in this direction and given a bit of time I think a few people will start listening.
the days of the political elite may be about to stare changing...

[Lavanda]

I'm not sure about that as what usually happens is that the new political elite simply replaces the old. Currently it looks as if the PSOE and Podemos may, finally, do a deal. There are threads on the forum about what will happen to us should the UK vote to leave the EU. Should the Spanish government be left wing I would say that we may see a change in taxation, including inheritance and property. After all, governments always want money and where better to get it than from 'wealthy' immigrants who do not have a vote. Not to mix threads but the future may be not so stable for us in Spain.

[markwilding]

The PSOE will only accept an agreement with Podemos where there is common ground. So no Catalan referendum or EU exit.

[wollie]

is it likely there will be a deal or that another election will take place?

[wollie]

can anyone update what is happening here? also am I right in thinking podemos made their demands for being involved in government available to media?
I have being told that the funding for podemos is coming from outside spain, has anyone heard of this?
it surprises me there is so little interest in this...

thanks.