Spain political uncertainty

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olive
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby olive » Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:31 am

My money is on another election too.

I agree it would be sad to revert back to two party politics.

Do we think the parties might modify their manifestoes if there is a second election?

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:15 am

olive wrote:Do we think the parties might modify their manifestoes if there is a second election?
Good question. Do you think they would have enough time to make a change and then sound credible?

My thoughts for what they are worth:

-- Ciudanos did much worse than expectation so they would have the least to lose. They could try to position themselves definitely in the centre and not centre-right as many see them.
-- Podemos did much better than expectation so more of the same possibly. Although of course they have already demonstrated their ability to evolve rapidly when required.
-- PP need to address corruption after the recent events and build confidence. How about a new leader?
-- PSOE I have no idea what it is they want to offer. But if I was them I'd work on building Sanchez up as a new generation of leader. He seems very sellable (although not as sellable as Iglesias 8) ).

As you said at the very beginning Olive will another election change the picture enough. PSOE and Podemos would need to gain another 17 seats to get a majority. And of course that assumes that Podemos can keep all their regional friends onside?

Fascinating stuff watching first hand history in the making.
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markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:20 am

flyeogh wrote:Berliner
it's very difficult for me to understand nationalism.
So presumably you wouldn't want to imprison a region within a country?

I remember smiling when the SNP rejected objections to their independance but then used the same arguments against the suggestion that The Shetlands may wish to remain in the Ruk :lol:
I agree with many of your posts but not this one.

First Scotland being a country forming a part of an agreed political union is not the same as the two regions of Spain.

The nationalists in Spain try to whip up hate against the rest of the country by using emotional arguments. I live in a hotbed of nationalism and many of the arguments are totally illogical and sometimes downright lies. History is altered to suit them. Listening to some, you would think the Civil war was between The Basque Country and Madrid, when in fact it was between neighbours. How ironic that Madrid fell to Franco almost a couple of years after Bilbao.

This type of rhetoric often does well with poorly educated people who fell great when they are told that they have the best of everything where they live. However, many can't be hoodwinked either and no matter how much nationalist rhetoric there is, many believe that being Catalan or Basque is to be Spanish as well.

markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:33 am

I too think another election is needed. The two main parties need to look hard at themselves and analyse why so many voted for the 2 new parties and change.

Some friends have said a coalition between the PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos might be the answer but I disagree because it would be papering over the cracks and would allow the status quo to continue.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:35 am

Mark agree with all of that. But invented rhetoric goes in both directions.

If they give me the job tomorrow I could with ease organise a referendum, persuade the people (using several of your points and many others), and get a stay together result with everyone happier.

All Rajoy does with his power-greed rhetoric is stir up nationalist feelings and support. I have no wish to see Spain split up but equally I respect the views of those who want independence.

Berliner was speaking from a very privileged position - educated and ability to travel. Maybe if he was poor and with less opportunity he might then understand nationalism. And I mean understand and not support :wink:

ps: I'm really very proud of how Scotland and the UK handled the situation. And some of my best friends are Scots :lol:
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markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:55 am

Rajoy is correct legally though. Catalonia's claim is based on an interpretation of history.

His party is also the main party of a United Spain so you wouldn't expect him to allow a referendum.

Catalonia has benefited from heavy investment through the Spanish financial institutions and banks using the savings of people from all over Spain. This is why the rest of Spain should benefit from the wealth that they produce. The constitution would need changing and is a strong argument for why all the rest of Spain would have to be in agreement to allow a referendum,

Neither Catalonia or The Basque Country legally or morally can make that decision themselves.

olive
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby olive » Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:04 pm

Neither Catalonia or The Basque Country legally or morally can make that decision themselves.

Well said Mark. I made the same point on the Scottish referendum. Any referendum should have all affected and not just those in the target country/province etc.

markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Wed Feb 03, 2016 12:21 pm

Just to clarify my opinion.
The decision to have a referendum should be made by the whole country though the incumbent democratically elected government but voting in the referendum itself only by the region, in other words the way it was done in the UK.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby Lavanda » Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:38 pm

We have been following the election, results, talks, interviews and horse-trading with extreme interest and we watched the show in Catalonia at the same time, as well. All my local friends want another election. They say that is the fairest and most democratic way. Although Extremadura is mainly PSOE in its tradition not everyone wants a party that only gained 90 seats to head up a cobbled-together government.

Sanchez is seen as a Hollywood figurehead — nice in the photos and on the telly but no real political substance. Podemos is seen as disastrous and, probably, only voted for by the young disaffected (but it would be interesting to see the demographics on that one). Iglesias is happy to support just about anyone as long as he is the Deputy President — for the good of the country, of course. Rajoy should do a Mas and retire gracefully into the background leaving the PP leadership open to someone untainted by accusations of corruption. Rivera seems like a calm, sensible voice but he simply does not have enough delegates to make much headway and, of course, he is diametrically opposed to the ideas of Iglesias as regards to allowing votes for independence, here, there and everywhere.

Should the PSOE and Podemos do a deal they will need a few more delegate's votes to gain a majority but if the deal involves changing the Constitution to allow independence for regions the older people here predict another Civil War, shorter but no less bloody. It would be easier to have another election. Possibly PSOE will poll even fewer votes and Podemos gain these votes. Whether the PP will pick up votes from Cuidadanos in complete fright at the thought of a government of the left remains to be seen. People here are quite fed-up, to be honest, and think this saga is making Spain a laughing-stock in Europe. Still, the Portuguese, next door, have only just sorted out their government after an inconclusive election months and months ago. It may be early days, yet. :lol:

markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:39 pm

I was listening to Sanchez talking this morning and he said policies PSOE had in common with the other leftish parties would be sufficent to form a government. However, there would be no chance of a referendum for Catalunia.
The other parties didn't agree though and he didn't win enough support to become Prime Minister.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby katy » Thu Mar 03, 2016 12:06 am

Was on BBC said there will be another vote in a couple of days. Surprised it isn't discussed more on here, I don't really understand all the manoeuvrings. You should keep us informed Mark :)

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:15 am

Katy nothing exciting is happening :lol: There are two votes. One has gone and Sanchez (PSOE) along with Rivera (Ciudanos) managed to muster 130 with 219 voting against. This first vote required an overall majority (176 votes supporting). The second vote is Friday evening when Sanchez will only require a simple majority.

However the PP and Podemos have hardened their positions so Sanchez will lose the vote. Even he admits the numbers do not add up and that he is only doing his constitutional duty going through the motions.

The miracle would be if Podemos abstain as a good will gesture (and to guarantee the end of Rajoy). Seems unlikely.

So the 64 million dollar question is "who gains from a rerun?"

Rajoy's PP exposed to more corruption charges and resignations?
Rivera's Ciudadanos who with 40 seats can hardly lose much and with Rivera playing the "we're all in this together ticket"?
Iglesia's Podemos with their referendum for Catalunya and kisses in parliment rather setting them apart.
Sanchez's PSOE - I have no idea what this much reduced former top player is offering that is different.

Should be fun but 4 months of no real government. Is that a good or a bad thing? :mrgreen:
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markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:46 am

The Catalonian problem is only relevant in one part of Spain, although It might also have some substance here in the Basque country as well. My son voted for them but as he isn't a nationalist, his reasons were different.
Anyway, the main parties probably wouldn't have picked up these votes anyway as Podemos took a lot of votes from the nationalist parties

The two main parties have to look at the reasons why people like my son rejected them and change.

olive
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby olive » Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:50 am

There has got to be another election. I have been working with 3 Spanish guys this last week. They are pretty downhearted about it . They don't see anything changing following a fresh election. One thing all three wouldn't vote for was anything moving towards allowing Catalonia to vote /become independent.

We also discussed Brexit/not. One was "it will be a bad thing", one didn't really know and the third confessed he didn't understand Spanish politics let alone European. The one who thought it will be a bad thing conceded that I was right following the 2008 crash. I said then it would take ten maybe twenty years for Spain to recover unless it left the Euro. He said one maybe two years maximum. Spaniards in rural Andalucia have seen nothing but good from being in the EU.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Thu Mar 03, 2016 11:23 am

olive very interesting.
olive wrote:We also discussed Brexit/not. One was "it will be a bad thing"
Did he say bad thing for who? The EU, UK or both? And why?
olive wrote:Spaniards in rural Andalucia have seen nothing but good from being in the EU.
So presumably they think unemployment would be worse without the EU. Around here (Cadiz/Jerez) not sure they can imagine worse than 30% :) I guess depends who you ask; a winner :D or a loser :(
olive wrote:There has got to be another election.
Olive you cannot say that till after Friday (if you are referring to June :wink: ). I agree a very long shot but if podemos think the election will not return them more than they have then abstaining would leave them with credibility and buy time to build. They don't need to support Sanchez, only abstain.

One member of my family voted Podemos but wouldn't again. Another certainly will but has reservations about Catalunya (more because of the subsequent Basque problem). So in line with your feedback I guess and Mark's comment.

I have seen the spanish press say that the current impasse is an embarrassment but I think they should not forget that Spain is pursuing a legal and fair (more or less) democratic process according to their constitution. For those like my wife in her 50s she remembers when Spain was governed by the gun :mrgreen:
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markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Thu Mar 03, 2016 11:36 am

flyeogh wrote:
olive wrote:Spaniards in rural Andalucia have seen nothing but good from being in the EU.
flyeogh wrote:So presumably they think unemployment would be worse without the EU. Around here (Cadiz/Jerez) not sure they can imagine worse than 30% :) I guess depends who you ask; a winner :D or a loser :(
Unemployment in Andalucia has always been high. Mass migration from the rural areas of Spain to Madrid and northern cities due to the lack of work has alway been a problem going back way before they joined the EU.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby flyeogh » Thu Mar 03, 2016 11:57 am

markwilding wrote:Unemployment in Andalucia has always been high. Mass migration from the rural areas of Spain to Madrid and northern cities due to the lack of work has alway been a problem going back way before they joined the EU.
Yes that is very true. But I would be fascinated to know what the Spaniards who think the EU is beneficial think they have gained. For sure the upper 10% and those that moved into other EU countries have gained but the others interest me.

You could argue the Euro is separate from the EU but my family grumbled about massive price rises when the peseta went. And they see the infrastructure that was built to no good purpose (for them :wink: ). And they see the EU money that was given to Asturias only for it to vanish. And none have used any EU institution for their direct benefit.

For sure they have very little experience of outside EU life apart from the fascists. So difficult for them to imagine what it would be like. Obviously it wouldn't be like Switzerland :lol:
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markwilding
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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Thu Mar 03, 2016 12:36 pm

What is clear that 30 years ago Spain was a relatively poor and undeveloped country.
Since it has joined the EU, It has become a politically stable developed country.
What it might have been like will always be purely hypothetical.

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby katy » Thu Mar 03, 2016 2:59 pm

Interesting stuff guys. I am keeping out of this one, for a change :lol: just 2 questions.
What is the voting age 16?
Do you think in the event of another election people will drift back to the two main parties?

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Re: Spain political uncertainty

Postby markwilding » Thu Mar 03, 2016 4:44 pm

I have just been talking with some students in the 20 to 40 year old range,
3 say they would vote the same way.
2 would change
2 aren't sure.
I asked if they thought Podemos would benefit from a second referendum and they all surprised me by saying a resounding no. The feeling was that they should have compromised and joined Sanchez and that they have lost their opportunity .


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