Employment numbers

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flyeogh
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Employment numbers

Postby flyeogh » Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:55 am

Very interesting to see the unemployment, number of claimants and job creation figures for 2016.

But does anyone believe them?

Must admit I’m very suspicious. Looking more closely many of the jobs being created are short-term contracts (and I mean short term, see below). As El Pais put it “many of these are short term and linked to seasonal campaigns”.

As for the number of registered unemployment failing that I believe is irrelevant as those who receive nothing do not register.

And while the minimum wage is due to increase (good news if enforced) it would be interesting to see the average wage figures. More people earning less in total will not stimulate domestic demand.

As El Pais highlights in a subsequent article there are contracts lasting one hour. And as the worker has to go to the office to sign up and then down, if you take that time into account I doubt the minimum wage is met.

Of course rising figures, even if much smaller than they appear, are all good news. And after three years the government is a bit restricted in manipulating the figures. You can only rob Peter to pay Paul so often.

So fingers crossed this is good news. Anyone any thoughts?
El raton de watford

olive
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby olive » Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:25 am

I agree with you on creative manipulation.

One question regarding If you do not receive some form of benefits there is no incentive to register. In later life at retirement age do those periods of not working and not registering unemployed count against you - i.e. you get a reduction?

anyroads
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby anyroads » Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:13 pm

Looking around when I was last out in November, nothing has seemed to change.

There were lots of able bodied young men hanging around, doing nothing as usual.

That is not going to change. This alas is the new norm.

The Euro is a disaster for countries like Spain.

anyroads

BENIDORM
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby BENIDORM » Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:57 pm

Olive,
Only your working days are used to calculate the pension that you will receive and you can request at anytime a 'Vida Laboral' calculation to see how many 'working days ' you have recorded.You will only get a pension based on what you've contributed
Regards,
Gordon

markwilding
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby markwilding » Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:33 am

anyroads wrote:Looking around when I was last out in November, nothing has seemed to change.

There were lots of able bodied young men hanging around, doing nothing as usual.

That is not going to change. This alas is the new norm.

The Euro is a disaster for countries like Spain.

anyroads
I'm not sure why you believe it's the Euro's fault for the levels of unemployment in Spain. Spain has always had higher levels than the UK. In the late eighties before they had joined the EU, unemployment was just as high. The reason was the collapse in the housing market and knock on effects were far reaching. Building stopped as did all the industries and work that relied on it. Not only were building companies going to the wall but also companies that produced bathroom furniture, kitchens, double glazing right down to letter box manufacturers etc.


The way unemployment is calculated in Spain is completely different from the UK. Half of all 25 year olds are unemployed but that doesn't tell the whole picture. Unless students sign on, they aren't counted in UK figures, while in Spain many are even if they aren't actively looking for work.

The reality is that there is no real incentive to manipulate the figures in Spain because unemployment benefit is only paid to those who have contributed and then there is a time limit to how long it can be paid, whereas in The UK payment can be more or less indefinite.....

Most young people I know through my job are going straight into jobs after they leave university even if it means having to move to Barcelona or Madrid so from that point off view things are looking up. I think the south of Spain suffers from a lack off people going to university so they can't benefit in the same way.

British people tend to look at Spain economy from a UK perspective forgetting that to be young and unemployed here doesn't put the same financial pressure on the state as the UK. On the other hand, it doesn't mean destitution because the family nucleus will usually muck in and help.

The only way I can see being a part of the Euro affected Spain badly was that the European Central bank was slow to allow quantitative easing but even then there are many economist that believe that QE can also damage the economy through higher inflation etc.

One lie often banded about during the referendum was regarding growth in the Spanish economy. The fact is that Spain's economy has been growing since 2014 and the last two years at a rate of over 3 per cent , unemployment although still too high has dropped from a high of 26% to the current figure of just under 18.9 per cent while it's public debt has risen...make of that what you will.

flyeogh
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby flyeogh » Fri Jan 06, 2017 3:38 pm

markwilding wrote: I'm not sure why you believe it's the Euro's fault for the levels of unemployment in Spain.
Without it Spain could impact money supply and value. Without this control the currency supply and value was controlled by an entity that had very different needs to Spain???
markwilding wrote:The reality is that there is no real incentive to manipulate the figures in Spain because unemployment benefit is only paid to those who have contributed and then there is a time limit to how long it can be paid, whereas in The UK payment can be more or less indefinite.....
so the voters of Spain are totally uninfluenced by employment and job creation figures?
markwilding wrote: On the other hand, it doesn't mean destitution because the family nucleus will usually muck in and help.
So pride in being able to contribute to a future, planning for a future (granny will die eventually :( ) are things Spaniards do not appreciate?

And long term unemployment has no negative impact? [/quote]
markwilding wrote:One lie often banded about during the referendum was regarding growth in the Spanish economy. The fact is that Spain's economy has been growing since 2014 and the last two years at a rate of over 3 per cent , unemployment although still too high has dropped from a high of 26% to the current figure of just under 18.9 per cent while it's public debt has risen...make of that what you will.
So 3% from close to nothing should be celebrated. Can't wait to tell the unemployed members of my spanish family that :wave:
El raton de watford

markwilding
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby markwilding » Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:05 pm

Nice to know you have Spanish family as do I.

All you doing is explaning from a Uk person's perspective. All your points are how we look at thing things.
Some people actually do not want to work more than they have to as long as they have the basics and this is especially true in the south of Spain.

People in Spain don't believe the unemployment figures but not as in the UK where people think they are higher than the official ones. They think that there are many people working but avoiding paying tax. Many never believed the 5 million figure.

The point about the diferent needs of countries is semi correct and I pointed this out in my post. Where this argument falls down is that even having their own currency, the problem would still exist. The Central European bank fiscal policy might suit certain parts of Europe but not others but those certain parts might include different parts of Spain too so being in the Euro might benefit the North of Spain but not the south and having the pesata would not change that.

We can see this in the Uk where London benfits from government policies but the north often suffers. London probably needs a slght rise in interest rates to control spending but the North would suffer because it nedds money being released into their economies

This PP government favours getting borrowing down and imposed austerity in the same way Cameron's did.Nothing to do with the Euro. The PP want people to believe that the EU imposed austerity but just watching programmes like newsnight around the time of the bailouts where they debated what was actually happening. Spain didn't want a bailout or any interference from ECB and were able to negotiate a different deal.

The crash was caused by over speculation in the housing market (in Spain) and the the world banks. Spain couldn't do as Iceland did and default on bad debt because Spain's bad debt tended to be inside Spain along with the fact that Spain's borrowings were one of the healthiest and the deficit was low and managable before the crash. The heavy borrowing came after. The Euro didn't cause any of that. Spain' did it to itself through the deregulation of house construction.

It might have been different had the socialists won a third term and continued with it's policy of borrow to spend their way out of the problems but the reason for the extreme austerity is firmly on the shoulders of the PP.

Your final point about 3 per cent. Spain economy suffered badly at lot and agreed that it might need another few years to get back to the levels at the peak of the boom but the economy still existed and it is going in the right direction. I would also add that 3 per cent year on year is pretty impressive and if it starts to go up at a faster rate, that too would not be good for the economy. Growth has to be steady and not fast because you just create the climate for another major recession in the future.

Lavanda
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby Lavanda » Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:07 am

I wonder how agriculture fits into the unemployment figures. In my village we have just finished the olive harvest. This year there's a shortage of olives and the payment per kilo is around 68 centimos — twice the price of last year. Olive oil will be expensive this year but that's another post. People have been collecting olives like never before. The weight per finca runs into the thousands of kilos. Many farmers will be pocketing over €10,000 and in about a fifth of cases up to €30,000. Plus subsidies. Some of these farmers ARE unemployed but gain their living from agriculture including figs, tomatoes, maize, etc. Small farmers. Private, family-owned fincas. Where does that fit into the official figures?

olive
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Re: Employment numbers

Postby olive » Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:30 am

Complex situation.

Around us just about every family has at least one finca. Some have full time employment and farm their olives as a hobby. I.e. After work, during holiday or at weekends. They pay tax on their incomes.

For people with just olives for income they go unemployed for the months where work like spraying , pruning, weed control cannot be done only at the weekend or fiesta days. If you can pick up two weeks work helping on say someone elses maize harvest then you come off the unemplyment for that.


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