Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

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Chunky Monky
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Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby Chunky Monky » Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:15 pm

I realize this is akin to studying chicken entrails.

The currency exchange company I use is quoting 1.137 to the pound. Perhaps the election will have little effect one way or the other, I don't know. The last time I transferred money from the UK was about a year ago before the referendum and got 1.30 then (the good old days!).

I was wondering what the general consensus is for making a currency exchange before or after the UK General Election?

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby El Cid » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:04 pm

It depends on who you expect to win. If May wins it will go back up. If Corbyn wins it will go down.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby Stevemul » Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:56 pm

But my pension will rise more and I'll still get winter fuel payment. On balance, I think Corbyn!

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costakid
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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby costakid » Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:08 am

Corbin? No chance especially after the terror in london last night.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby Stevemul » Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:17 am

I cannot see any basis for that arguement costakid given the record of the tories


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 12646.html

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby anyroads » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:07 pm

No matter what government is in power.

There is little they can do if some nutters decide ( perhaps being "inspired" by all the attention the others got from the BBC ), they are going to hire a van, get some knives and create havoc. Sad but true.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby anyroads » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:09 pm

And getting back to the exchange rate...

I expect a small uplift when the Conservatives are returned with a working majority. Brexit will keep a lid on it for a while alas.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby wollie » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:45 am

El Cid wrote:It depends on who you expect to win. If May wins it will go back up. If Corbyn wins it will go down.

Sid


I am curious to know why having a different leader would effect currency rates?

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby Gasman » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:10 am

Its not so much the change of leader, Wollie, more the effect a hung parliament versus a huge majority would have on the Brexit negotiations and related uncertainty or otherwise on global and more local effects on the pound.
Well - there does seem to be an awfully close thing to a hung parliament so I dont think the pound is going to be healthy for a while.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby maureenscot » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:52 pm

Hung drawn and quartered

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Paulinmalaga
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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby Paulinmalaga » Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:23 pm

I Suggest Theresa May Shuts The Strong & "Stable" Door on the way OUT


https://www.change.org/p/may-out-no-coa ... -the-d-u-p

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby ashtondav » Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:13 pm

No strong mandate now exists on Brexit, let alone a "hard" Brexit. We will see revolt in both the Labour and Tory parties, leading to tactical voting on many issues. The next two years could be interesting.

Only the simple minded May could issue a manifesto that promised to reduce pension increases, means test fuel allowance and remove the cap on care fees. All aimed at her core constituency - the pensioners.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby anyroads » Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:36 am

Yes,

Of course there have been mutterings about pensioners having ( but not all of course ) it easy compared to the younger generation.

But this was really May shooting herself in the foot. The worst of all possible outcomes.

We live in interesting times !

The £ is going nowhere for now.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby quebin » Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:18 pm

anyroads wrote:


The £ is going nowhere for now.

anyroads

It's going down against the € !

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby anyroads » Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:15 pm

May drop a cent or two before the dust settles.

The EURO is in no great shape either.

In my humble opinion it is way overvalued against the £.

1.25 would be a fair exchange rate.

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White Horse
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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby White Horse » Mon Jun 12, 2017 8:47 pm

As if anyone's humble opinion counts. As Maggie told us, you can't buck the market!

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby anyroads » Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:21 am

Of course you can't.

But unless Germany comes up with a magic money tree, the EU is still on borrowed time, and of course, BREXIT will create just as much problems in the EU as it will in the UK...

I don't need to buy EUROS at the present time. I will bide my time in the full confidence that when I do need some, I will be getting a much better rate than at present.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby markwilding » Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:53 am

I hope you weren't thinking of coming anytime soon :D

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby anyroads » Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:52 pm

Well,

Let's see what late September brings ( but in truth I don't need to buy for several years ).

But like to pick up holiday spending money now and again.

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Re: Effect of the UK General Election on the exchange rate.

Postby markwilding » Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:25 pm

The cause of the weekness is uncertainty and i'm pretty sure that even if some decisions will have been made by September, there will still be a period of massive change especially if the UK leaves the single market because it will take some time to disengage and negotiate new treaties.
As it is we are seeing the negative effects of Brexit appearing almost a year after the referendum, such as Inflation growing higher than wage growth but nothing has changed apart from the markets. There hasn't been a single decision made yet.

As I see it, the pound will constantly move from the point it was before the election where every knock will see it dropping a couple of points before recovering back to the same point again when things settle. We won't see a recovery to pre referendum level for at least 2-3 years


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