A sobering report
And a follow up report: http://tinyurl.com/39b3lt
Euro helps topple Spanish property
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Campo Kenny
Just a basic and unresearched observation by myself.
If you drive along the coast from say Nerja to Marbella it is absolutley astounding to me the amount of boxy little urbanisation houses crammed together like sardines in a can and in various stages of completion, simply thousands of them, I was amazed!
I've often thought it must surely be "overkill" and that there is no way there could possibly be takers on the thousands upon thousands of these unsightly and over priced offerings...........I thought a couple of years ago how this programme was sustainable and personally fully expected the bubble to burst.
From a personal and selfish point of view I'm confident in our decision to purchase inland where financial constraints have always been an issue.
The houses in general seem to be built to order rather than covering 100 acres with concrete on spec.
At the end of the day I would not be too concerned with reports like this as at the end of the day people will still want a life in Spain purely because of its climate and atmosphere, and I feel a nice property will always have a safe place in the market if bought right and advertised at a sensible price.........sadly something a lot of them aren't.
Kenny
If you drive along the coast from say Nerja to Marbella it is absolutley astounding to me the amount of boxy little urbanisation houses crammed together like sardines in a can and in various stages of completion, simply thousands of them, I was amazed!
I've often thought it must surely be "overkill" and that there is no way there could possibly be takers on the thousands upon thousands of these unsightly and over priced offerings...........I thought a couple of years ago how this programme was sustainable and personally fully expected the bubble to burst.
From a personal and selfish point of view I'm confident in our decision to purchase inland where financial constraints have always been an issue.
The houses in general seem to be built to order rather than covering 100 acres with concrete on spec.
At the end of the day I would not be too concerned with reports like this as at the end of the day people will still want a life in Spain purely because of its climate and atmosphere, and I feel a nice property will always have a safe place in the market if bought right and advertised at a sensible price.........sadly something a lot of them aren't.
Kenny
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burrotaxi
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I agree with Campo if you drive from the airport to Marbella its amazing the amount of development that is still taking place. I foresee a lot of developers going bust and a stagnation in the new development property market.
With the increase in the costs of flights from the low cost airlines its difficult to see that Spain will be quite so attractive for UK purchasers?
That said those who have good quality properties in popular areas that are not overdeveloped will continue to see a demand for their properties but be aware we are not going to see anything like the rise in prices seen in recent years.
With the increase in the costs of flights from the low cost airlines its difficult to see that Spain will be quite so attractive for UK purchasers?
That said those who have good quality properties in popular areas that are not overdeveloped will continue to see a demand for their properties but be aware we are not going to see anything like the rise in prices seen in recent years.
BurroTaxi
I'd say that a sensible price is probably less than half of what most sellers would expect to receive at present. When prices do reach that level I would agree that Spain will be an attractive propositionCampo Kenny wrote: At the end of the day I would not be too concerned with reports like this as at the end of the day people will still want a life in Spain purely because of its climate and atmosphere, and I feel a nice property will always have a safe place in the market if bought right and advertised at a sensible price.........sadly something a lot of them aren't.
Kenny
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Faire d'Income
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The Spanish economy has been a one card trick for many years now and given the Spanish government's intense lobbying of the ECB for higher interest rates to offset their inflation rates it seems a little obvious to me that it would have a knock on effect on house prices.
There again, you've only had to see some of the ridiculous prices that Spanish companies have paid for UK Plc over the last few years (Ferrovial in particular) to realise that there is a degree of naivety in Spain when it comes to running a modern economy.
There again, you've only had to see some of the ridiculous prices that Spanish companies have paid for UK Plc over the last few years (Ferrovial in particular) to realise that there is a degree of naivety in Spain when it comes to running a modern economy.
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claire4james
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"Bernard Connolly, global strategist for Banque AIG and former head of economic research for the European Commission, said the country will face a brutal adjustment over the next two years - if it can remain in the euro at all."
Can someone exlpain to me in laymans terms please what "brutal Adjustment" means.
Also, what would be the alternatives to not remaining in the euro at all?
Can someone exlpain to me in laymans terms please what "brutal Adjustment" means.
Also, what would be the alternatives to not remaining in the euro at all?
from La Cala with love...........
Not only Nerja to marbella, thousands going up around Estepona, all square boxes and ugly, many overlooking the toll road! Almeria and now they are ruining my favourite places on the Costa de la Luz, continues right up to the Portugese border. Location does always sell though (Friend sold in 3 days last month!) although I know someone in coín who has been trying to sell for 2 years and it is a good location. Perhaps 3 bedroom apartments may sell well seeing as most seem to be 2 beds?
I think he spells it out in ther next paragraph:Can someone exlpain to me in laymans terms please what "brutal Adjustment" means.
He said: "Spain is going to face the very direst of economic circumstances: a cycle of recession, deflation and widespread private sector default - a depression in fact. This stock market slide is not just a 'correction'. It has a very, very, long way to go."
In other words he thinks the country will go bust!
I think he is alluding to the 'one size fits all' monetary policy presided over by the ECB. Interest rates in Spain needed to be far higher much sooner than they are moving at the moment and the Spanish can do little about it. The UK is fortunate in that it can set interest rates to suit its own economic needs.Also, what would be the alternatives to not remaining in the euro at all?
Brian.
We all know bad things don't happen in the A.com bubble. Lets see next year who will eat their hat!
Just heard a guy on spanish radio, said that with 800,000 units going up and only 600,000 sold for the last few years bound to hit a problem...but what do they all know compared to the posters on here
Just heard a guy on spanish radio, said that with 800,000 units going up and only 600,000 sold for the last few years bound to hit a problem...but what do they all know compared to the posters on here
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Miro
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I'd say that if you think prices will halve, you're dreaming. Try Bulgaria.citymike wrote:I'd say that a sensible price is probably less than half of what most sellers would expect to receive at present. When prices do reach that level I would agree that Spain will be an attractive proposition
Why, is it only flights to Spain that will be affected? Is there going to be a corresponding property boom in Bognor Regis then?burrotaxi wrote:With the increase in the costs of flights from the low cost airlines its difficult to see that Spain will be quite so attractive for UK purchasers?
I think these scare-mongering articles that are appearing in the press are focussed on large development companies that have been building huge, non-viable urbanizations in the middle of nowhere, sometimes illegally, with no existing infrastructure in place. Naturally there is a limit to how much of this unwanted and unnecessary housing they can shift, and as a result, some of the greedy b*ggers have found themselves in deep sh*t. Serves them right. I'm sure tumbling share prices in these companies may have some effect on the property market in general, but then again so do many other factors - even the bloody weather probably.
Campo Kenny wrote: a nice property will always have a safe place in the market if bought right and advertised at a sensible price
Nuff said.burrotaxi wrote: good quality properties in popular areas that are not overdeveloped will continue to see a demand for their properties
Don't worry about what people think, they don't do it very often
"Acquiring a dog may be the only opportunity a human ever has to choose a relative," Mordecai Siegal 1935-2010.
"Acquiring a dog may be the only opportunity a human ever has to choose a relative," Mordecai Siegal 1935-2010.
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Colinm
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Its the same old story..........
'Investors' who bought 3 properties with the intention of selling two.........
'Investors' hoping for a quick profit..........
So, the glut of unfinished properties, and the oversupply of the market will lead to cheap(er) prices. the 'investors' will move in again and start buying in the hope of making a further profit. Maybe prices will drop further and they will show a paper loss, so they buy more property at the cheaper price, and average their costs. When (not if) when the prices start to rise again, they can turn a profit. It just takes the nerve to hold on.
BUT, none of the above effects the true value of our own homes, whether they are first or second homes. The fluctuation in propery values only comes into play when buying or selling.
Now, if the local councils started buying up the unfinished appartment blocks and selling them of as VSOP housing to Romanians, and Africans, that would effect values.........
'Investors' who bought 3 properties with the intention of selling two.........
'Investors' hoping for a quick profit..........
So, the glut of unfinished properties, and the oversupply of the market will lead to cheap(er) prices. the 'investors' will move in again and start buying in the hope of making a further profit. Maybe prices will drop further and they will show a paper loss, so they buy more property at the cheaper price, and average their costs. When (not if) when the prices start to rise again, they can turn a profit. It just takes the nerve to hold on.
BUT, none of the above effects the true value of our own homes, whether they are first or second homes. The fluctuation in propery values only comes into play when buying or selling.
Now, if the local councils started buying up the unfinished appartment blocks and selling them of as VSOP housing to Romanians, and Africans, that would effect values.........
IMO there will be sharp fall in house values, it's no good hoping there won't be. When supply outstrips demand it's very simple economics. I would not want to own a standard apt in an urbanization-a-like if I needed or wanted to sell.
But like Colin said, if you don't need or want to sell, then it's irrelevent.
Crash? I don't think so, like others have already said, Spain is and always will be an attractive proposition and prices won't fall too far before watchers become buyers.
But like Colin said, if you don't need or want to sell, then it's irrelevent.
Crash? I don't think so, like others have already said, Spain is and always will be an attractive proposition and prices won't fall too far before watchers become buyers.
On GMTV this morning [Thursday]
It looks more like a crash for the big developers as they are having share prices cut by up to 20%.
With 200,000 spare new homes [mostly on the coast]
Prices are bound to fall for those who have to sell up,
But residents will ride it out and see it come back up once the
supply and demand is leveled out.
It looks more like a crash for the big developers as they are having share prices cut by up to 20%.
With 200,000 spare new homes [mostly on the coast]
Prices are bound to fall for those who have to sell up,
But residents will ride it out and see it come back up once the
supply and demand is leveled out.
Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated into the collective
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Miro
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When has "economics" ever been simple?MarkF wrote:IMO there will be sharp fall in house values, it's no good hoping there won't be. When supply outstrips demand it's very simple economics.
Don't worry about what people think, they don't do it very often
"Acquiring a dog may be the only opportunity a human ever has to choose a relative," Mordecai Siegal 1935-2010.
"Acquiring a dog may be the only opportunity a human ever has to choose a relative," Mordecai Siegal 1935-2010.
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