catalan

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flyeogh
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Re: catalan

Postby flyeogh » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:31 pm

Jordi Sánchez, who heads the Catalan National Assembly (ANC), and Jordi Cuixart, leader of Omnium Cultural ..............Hours before High Court judge Carmen Lamela ruled that the two men should be held in pre-trial detention, the court freed the head of Catalonia's police force, Josep Lluis Trapero. Prosecutors had called for him to be held in detention. Been on Spanish TV but text above thanks to BBC.

So Rajoy, being the statesman he is, has decided the heavy hand is needed. What a shame; he must have skipped history lessons when he was a boy :shifty:

I bet the EU are doing their little heads in. :evil:
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wollie
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Re: catalan

Postby wollie » Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:56 am

Though long term i believe the EU as is now cannot survive long term whats happening in UK and Spain will make it stronger in the short term.
Its clear that the banks and the multi-nationals have alot more power than the people as when they decide to re-locate from a Country that is not playing by the rules it is a game changer.
Unlikely Rajoy be worried as the others playing into his hands, to me the trial is a way of deflecting from what happened on referendum day. When its all over (and it almost is) the police chief likely retire on a nice pension.

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Re: catalan

Postby flyeogh » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:36 am

Here is a view from the other side. Of course emotional and biased but I thought interesting to balance out the state media version.

https://youtu.be/wouNL14tAks
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wollie
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Re: catalan

Postby wollie » Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:09 am

Why did they let it come to this? the Catalun politicians must all be idiots.
The EU (not Spain) has said they are not Europeans.
Its an awful mess and anyone could see it coming.
Regardless of what happens it will take long time to recover.

olive
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Re: catalan

Postby olive » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:07 pm

wollie wrote:Why did they let it come to this? the Catalun politicians must all be idiots.

Complacency. Just like the establishment let Britain slip out of the EU (always assuming they don't overturn the vote). Catalan politicians are far from idiots and have their own agenda
The EU (not Spain) has said they are not Europeans.
They must be looking at a different map to me. Catalunia and Britain for that matter are still in Europe which existed long before the Eu was invented. The Eu , despite its vision of grandeur does not have the monopoly yet on the word European
Its an awful mess and anyone could see it coming.

True but complacency rules. The people must toe the line decided by the elite. They assume they hold all the trump cards. For example the referendum on October 1st would never happen
Regardless of what happens it will take long time to recover.


One or two years. Ukraine isn't doing too badly. Poland likewise. There will be financial consequences for sure depending on the outcome

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Re: catalan

Postby flyeogh » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:21 pm

olive wrote:
wollie wrote:Why did they let it come to this? the Catalun politicians must all be idiots.

Complacency.


I assume you mean that the national politicians have been complacent?

Clearly the Indy politicians have not been. They have bought Catalunya very near to Indy and still may end up with a very different looking federal Spain that better meets their needs. A few guys in jail and a loss to the economy is a price they will see worth paying.
El raton de watford

markwilding
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Re: catalan

Postby markwilding » Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:30 pm

I don’t see it that way. They don’t have enough popular vote yet. One thing is to allow a referendum, it’s completely different thing winning it.
Not only that, we can argue over opinion but not over fact, there is no legal basis for succession at the moment.

El Cid wrote:Whatever happens, the government will not allow it.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/09/07/in ... 68840.html

Sid

I haven’t seen anything that has changed.

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Re: catalan

Postby flyeogh » Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:58 pm

markwilding wrote:I haven’t seen anything that has changed.


Not like me to see much hope in this but I believe something has changed. In Madrid there are meetings to get a change to the constitution underway. Something PSOE have pushed for since 2013. Can't see Podemos not being positive to the debate, and with Rajoy saying on wednesday that the constitution is not set in stone, there must be hope. It will be a long process of course. You can see it discussed here https://www.ft.com/content/320f47ae-af49-11e7-aab9-abaa44b1e130?mhq5j=e5 among other places.

Looks like sensible people are doing things (at least discussing) behind the scenes.

Hopefully Rajoy can do the statesman like thing and ease off punishing the whole of Catalunya (and thus Spain) and start dialog with the moderates of Catalunya.

Well that is my optimistic picture :thumbup:
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olive
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Re: catalan

Postby olive » Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:34 pm

flyeogh wrote:
olive wrote:
wollie wrote:Why did they let it come to this? the Catalun politicians must all be idiots.

Complacency.


I assume you mean that the national politicians have been complacent?

Yes just like they are elsewhere.

Clearly the Indy politicians have not been. They have bought Catalunya very near to Indy and still may end up with a very different looking federal Spain that better meets their needs. A few guys in jail and a loss to the economy is a price they will see worth paying.


Loss to the economy? I keep seeing that being mentioned. Is that a reference to large companies moving their HQ, but not operations, out of Catalunia to presumably be taxed by Madrid and fall under financial governance of Spain (and the EU)? Or is this like Project Fear for Brexit - ( sorry to keep drawing parallels) to scare the populace into thinking they would be worse off independent?

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Re: catalan

Postby markwilding » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:47 pm

It’s not project fear. Last week there was a real problem with people in the rest of Spain withdrawing all their money from the Banks. They might be catalan banks but the majority of their customers are outside catalunia. Spain moved to protect its citizens.
Remember, Spain is in the Euro and that means falling back out of the Eurozone would cause imense problems to its banking system.

Catalunia has high debt owed to Spain and this would need to be resolved and any new borrowing would not be possible.

Keep linking this to what the EU wants will take you off track. You can see from flyeogh’s video it’s the Catalans who want help from the EU.

Most countries quite clearly agree that this is a internal
Spanish historic problem, going back hundreds of years.

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Re: catalan

Postby flyeogh » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:29 pm

olive wrote:
Loss to the economy? I keep seeing that being mentioned. Is that a reference to large companies moving their HQ, but not operations, out of Catalunia to presumably be taxed by Madrid and fall under financial governance of Spain (and the EU)? Or is this like Project Fear for Brexit - ( sorry to keep drawing parallels) to scare the populace into thinking they would be worse off independent?


I see where you are coming from but no not that. As you suggest (?) moving a registered office, as in the case of Royal Bank of Scotland, does not directly lead to much job loss. Moving HQ would be somewhat a bigger issue (I remember RBS saying around 1000 jobs would be lost to Edinburgh). But I do not see VW moving out of Catalunya any more than Caixa. There investment, especially with the like of VW (infrastructure, workforce, production lines) is just to great. And that goes for the chemical and manufacteuring plants as well.

I also said that it is a loss I think the Independistas will be willing to pay for a better deal so I didn't exaggerate it. But as the uncertainty stretches beyond a year it will add up.

I think the biggest hits for Catalunya, until there is a signed compromise, will be:

Investment. When there is a lack of stability investment dries up. Both foreign and local investment. And Catalunya normally attracts more than its fair share of investment. Imagine if you are VW deciding on a new production line for a new electric model? They have sites in 14 European countries plus Pamplona, outside of Catalunya. Saying nothing of the rest of the world.
Tourism. The place will look less attractive.
And then I can imagine lost days of production due to strikes.

And a little cost: I remember the 15M and DRY demos in Madrid. Many shop keepers said they were seriously suffering due to access to their shops (not deliberately) being blocked by demonstrations, with potential clients and tourists steering clear. Small costs for the little people.

Of course if they do seperate I think the costs to both sides will be enormous. But I still can't see that happening. It makes no sense.
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Re: catalan

Postby flyeogh » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:52 pm

markwilding wrote: Keep linking this to what the EU wants will take you off track. You can see from flyeogh’s video it’s the Catalans who want help from the EU.


Mark I think that is a very interesting observation.

ps It is not my video but do you think I should use it with my Spanish learning English students here in Cadiz? :twisted:
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Re: catalan

Postby Pamela1 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:31 pm

Andalucia, Calaunia etc ..They all need one another and all of the Spanish regions are stronger together and as flyeogh states it makes no sense for them to separate.

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Re: catalan

Postby wollie » Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:42 am

I think i mis-worded an earlier post as i said the EU said the Catalan people are not Europeans, of course they are but they are not members of the EU in their own right and are members because they are part of Spain.
As for the video that was posted its very sad that peoples emotions have being led this way by stupid politicians that think they can do as the please its a case of "the tail wagging the dog"
The EU can and will do nothing as its not in the wider interest of economic Europe, also if i hat a nice office in Brussels and a salary of €250k i would not want to see parts of the EU going alone.
I expect the political thing be cleared tomorrow, cleaning up the mess and the divisions in the Catalan region will take a bit of healing.
Very sad mess..

markwilding
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Re: catalan

Postby markwilding » Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:51 am

Woolie,
This will never go away. The EU will do nothing because they can't. It has absolutely nothing to do with them. What they will do is wait for developments and react. This goes very deep into the very DNA of Spanish society and history.

The whole of the wider world will react the same with any eventual outcome.

If, and this is very unlikely and a very big if, Catalonia becomes independent legally, then there will be a process that will allow them to unravel itself from Spain and agreements regarding what responsibilities both groups have. Catalonia have a very large debt owed to Spain who in turn owe it themselves to the ECB, this would need sorting out. Maybe the debt would be transferred directly to the European Central bank, lowering Spain's debt at a single stroke. Pensions and the like would need to be negotiated. Companies would decide where they want to base themselves. it should be noted that not all companies with headquarters in Catalonia are Catalan, some are actually Spanish and might prefer to stay based in Spain.

However,The EU would accept them after the normal membership requirements are met. Junker's opinion would be irrelevant. In this scenario the economic problems would be kept to a minimum

If They leave unilaterally without popular support, then no deals with any country in the world ( Obviously, there would be some sort of agreement to avoid citizens suffering unnecessary hardships). Even Russia, which is constantly trying to destabilise the EU with fake news, would be wary because it has it's own problems with separatist states. In this scenario it would be economic disaster for both Spain and much more so for Catalonia. Without deals both Catalan and Spanish companies would need to relocate to other parts of Spain or further afield.

There is another potential problem that nobody has mentioned which is this could also break up Catalonia as well if there are strong remain areas who decide they want to stay within Spain and a unconstitutional declaration would mean they would be within their rights to do so. I don't know if this is the case but here in the Basque Country the possibility exists with Alava who have much closer ties to feeling Spanish.
Last edited by markwilding on Wed Oct 18, 2017 8:38 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: catalan

Postby wollie » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:03 am

markwilding,
You are right if another region jumps on board the Catalan journey it be a gamechanger, i do not know what the feeling on this is in places like the Basque region but am interested.
As for Catalan joining the EU, i think their economy be likely be in tatters, it more likely be the start of the EU break-up when we add in Brexit which i believe "will not happen"

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Re: catalan

Postby Manchesteral » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:12 am

There will be no Catalan independence in the foreseeable future, end of and the E U in it's present form will implode within 5 years !

markwilding
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Re: catalan

Postby markwilding » Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:29 am

wollie wrote:markwilding,
You are right if another region jumps on board the Catalan journey it be a gamechanger, i do not know what the feeling on this is in places like the Basque region but am interested.
"

Woolie,

You need to reread my last paragraph again because I didn't write that

However, I couldn't imagine the Basque Country jumping on board, although the outcome of this current crisis will influence on how they would move forward.

Last week I heard a Catalan MEP in a BBC interview say the EU needs Catalonia more than we need them, :wtf: Sound familiar? has to be the oddest and most delusional comment I've heard. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: catalan

Postby wollie » Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:04 pm

Woolie,

"You need to reread my last paragraph again because I didn't write that"

I don't know what this means but its ok.

I thought this Catalan thing be done by now but seems to be getting worse.
Will they be able to sort it out i wonder?

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Re: catalan

Postby Flexo » Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:33 am

olive wrote:Loss to the economy? I keep seeing that being mentioned. Is that a reference to large companies moving their HQ, but not operations, out of Catalunia to presumably be taxed by Madrid and fall under financial governance of Spain (and the EU)? Or is this like Project Fear for Brexit - ( sorry to keep drawing parallels) to scare the populace into thinking they would be worse off independent?


It is obvious that Catalonia's economy is prospering primarily because it is the most business friendly region in Spain. When it is no longer Spain, many businesses will leave to Spain. Not all, sure, but many will have no choice. The same thing can be said about UK (don't even know your point in this matter, we already know several banks have already started their move to the continent).

Of course this might change in the long term, lets say Catalonia creates a very business friendly system that competes not only with Spain but also other countries - taking business from Gibraltar for instance - then it goes the other way. How likely that is to happen in any foreseeable future is something that I can't discuss.


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