40 degrees?

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IreneD
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40 degrees?

Postby IreneD » Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:40 pm

That's what bbc weather says it will be tomorrow and Wednesday (Malaga). Accuweather says 34 for the next 2 days. That's quite a big difference, anyone know why they vary so much? Just curious......

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annfoto
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby annfoto » Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:24 pm

Irene,
Why not use the Spanish Meteorological Service (AEMET) for your forecasts?
You can get loads of info there including important weather warnings for rain/wind/extreme heat, satelite pictures, lightning radar and loads more.
This is the link to the 7 day forecast for Coín
http://www.aemet.es/en/eltiempo/prediccion/municipios/coin-id29042
It is easy to change it to your town.
I think the BBC probably just look up the forecast printed in the Daily Mail or similar :wtf:
Ann

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chrissiehope
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby chrissiehope » Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:46 pm

Another site is http://www.foreca.es/Spain/Malaga - you can search for any town (I just put Malaga as an example).

I tend to check both this one & AEMET, as sometimes I've found one of them completely different to the other :? :wink:

Whatever your weather, it's got to be better than ours in UK :( :thumbdown: :lolno:
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby El Cid » Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:14 am

From my experience the most consistent one for temperatures is AEMET. Some of the others are consistently wrong especially Accuweather.

Malaga is a particularly difficult one to forecast as they often get the "Terral" wind which can drive temperatures up over 40c without much warning.

All these weather forecasts get their basic data from the same source - the weather models produced by the US weather service and from the UK Met Office. These models go for up to 14 days ahead and show the basic weather systems etc. The companies providing the on line forecasts just run a computer program to spit out a forecast for individual locations. There is little or no human involvement in this which is why it doesn't take in local factors and is only a best guess of what it might be like.

When you see a Met Office presenter giving a forecast on UK TV then that is much more accurate as it has had a lot of input from experienced forecasters.


If you look at the small print at the bottom of the AEMET local forecasts it says this:-

" This forecast should be interpreted as the most probable trend of the meteorological evolution in the next 7 days. They are generated automatically by the statistical treatment of results of numerical weather prediction models. This can occasionally lead to not fully match with the other predictions made ​​by the Agency, which are produced by forecasters interpreting and adjusting the model results. Selection is made ​​by municipalities and the information presented are predictions for the provincial capital, as some municipalities have a wide geographical spread and height differences, some of the data provided can vary from place to place."


Sid

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby katy » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:36 am

I never used to check the weather during a spanish summer...does it really matter if it's going to be 34C or 40C :lolno:

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby El Cid » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:59 am

katy wrote:I never used to check the weather during a spanish summer...does it really matter if it's going to be 34C or 40C :lolno:



Fair comment but when you are going to get extreme heat like 40c it's useful to know in advance!

Sid

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White Horse
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby White Horse » Tue Jul 10, 2012 10:34 am

El Cid wrote:From my experience the most consistent one for temperatures is AEMET.

Sid

Yep, agreed, the others are a poor substitute, and not just for temperatures but the whole weather picture.

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby Stoker » Tue Jul 10, 2012 11:12 am

Check out www.eltiempo.es. It is fairly detailed and also covers wind and sea conditions.

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby kexon » Tue Jul 10, 2012 11:24 am

When you live in Seville province which i do the difference between 34c which to me is more comfortable and 40c which your body starts to struggle with it really does make a difference!

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby El Cid » Tue Jul 10, 2012 11:57 am

Stoker wrote:Check out www.eltiempo.es. It is fairly detailed and also covers wind and sea conditions.


Yes, it's a good site but it's another one that has rather erratic temperature predictions. It's good for everything else and their iPad app is superb.

Sid

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annfoto
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby annfoto » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:17 pm

Living in deepest campo with tracks that disappear under water after prolonged heavy rain I always go to the AEMET site first because if there is any weather event of significance (heavy rain, lightning, high winds or extreme heat) likely to happen it will appear as a weather warning with a detailed and frequently updated prediction of what might occur. There is currently a yellow weather warning for extreme heat 37C between 11.00 and 21.00 tomorrow for Sol & Guadalhorce.
These Metoalerta warnings are the most accurate forecasts available free of charge. :thumbup:

"The National Plan of prediction and monitoring of adverse weather (meteoalerta), aims to facilitate the most detailed and up-to-date information as possible adverse atmospheric phenomena which can affect Spain up to a maximum period of 60 hours, as well as maintain a continued its evolution information once they have started their development."

I also find this blog very good http://blogs.diariosur.es/tormentas-y-rayos/2012/07/10/el-terral-quiere-entrar-hoy-alerta-amarilla-impresionantes-fotos-en-malaga-de-altocumulos-estratiformes-perlucidus-undulatus/
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby katy » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:23 pm

Did anyone see the giant jellyfish plague. Headline says extreme heat and lack of rain have made breeding easier. Many beaches have had to be closed and 2000 were bitten over the weekend. However, in the small print the real reason is given...it's not the weather it's overfishing!

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IreneD
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby IreneD » Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:32 pm

Very interesting, thanks guys, especially Sid - I feel I've learnt something today :thumbup: I've now put aemet into favourites (thanks for the link Ann) and will use that for weather info. I did go a bit pale at the thought of 40 for the next few days - well, as pale as I can get under this red sweaty face I've got lol.

I'll also check out the blog, Ann, thanks.

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby Free at Last » Tue Jul 10, 2012 2:45 pm

I wouldn't worry unduly, Irene - the BBC forecast showed 41C for last Saturday, then it changed to 41C for last Sunday, and it didn't materialise on either day.

We probably each have our individual comfort zone for temperatures, personally I'm fine with 34C but 38 or over gets unpleasant, more so with every degree over! Especially if accompanied by humidity, which I really hate.

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby El Cid » Tue Jul 10, 2012 3:53 pm



Very interesting.

It is saying that the Terral will be blowing tomorrow with very high temperatures. I mentioned the Terral in my earlier post.

What is interesting is that the AEMET "town" forecast for all the places affected by it is not showing high temperatures (typically 31c) but the weather warning on the same page refers to temperatures of 37c.

The difference, as I pointed out, is that the computerised local forecast doesn't take into account the local conditions but the weather warnings, which are complied by a real forecaster with his piece of seaweed, is giving the higher temperatures.

What is odd is that the BBC forecast seems to have got it right but that could be more by luck than judgement!

Sid

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IreneD
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby IreneD » Tue Jul 10, 2012 3:58 pm

That was weird - posted a reply, went to look at it and all I could see was your post, Sid - it would appear we clicked at exactly the same time and you must have inadvertently batted my reply into cyberspace. Well, you do have seniority lol.

I was just saying to Free at Last that AEMAT says it's 32 here today, which is not too bad, I can cope with that :thumbup:

Will go and have a look at the blog link

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IreneD
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby IreneD » Tue Jul 10, 2012 4:07 pm

oh, I'm confused now :crazy: - I haven't actually ventured out at all today, maybe I'll drag OH to the bar for a beer, see how hot it actually is!

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White Horse
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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby White Horse » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:24 pm

katy wrote:Did anyone see the giant jellyfish plague. Headline says extreme heat and lack of rain have made breeding easier. Many beaches have had to be closed and 2000 were bitten over the weekend. However, in the small print the real reason is given...it's not the weather it's overfishing!

Who has been biting the jellyfish, Katy?



Jellyfish don't bite, of course, they sting.

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby katy » Tue Jul 10, 2012 10:07 pm

:oops: Yes, correct....you know what I meant :)

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Re: 40 degrees?

Postby Dr1Gonzo » Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:42 am

cue Ray Winstone:
"Oh, yeah. Bloody hell. I'm sweating in here. Roasting. Boiling. Baking. Sweltering. It's like a sauna. Furnace. You can fry an egg on my stomach. Ohh, who wouldn't lap this up? It's ridiculous. Tremendous. Fantastic. Fan-dabby-dozy-tastic. "


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