What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

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gerryh
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What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby gerryh » Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:57 am

What effect, if any, will it have on us who live here in Spain full time if GB leaves the EU?

I suggest you just reply to my question and don't go into the reasons why GB should/ shroud not leave the EU. That discussion requires a topic of it's own.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby El Cid » Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:49 am

That depends entirely on what reciprocal deals are made after the vote and this subject has not even started to be discussed yet.

For long term residents, their residency status cannot be affected as they all have the right of permanent residency after 5 years.

The biggest issue will be health care as that is paid for by the UK. I doubt that this would change as it would clearly be manifestly unfair as all the EU residents remaining in the UK would retain their NHS rights as that is based on residency so how could a similar number of UK citizens in the EU be denied similar rights?

The exchange rate is likely to have the biggest effect on most expats as their income is UK based. The FX pundits seem to think there could be a 20% drop initially, but when they talk about exchange rates they are usually referring to the GBP/USD rate. The instability that will be caused in the rest of the Eurozone by a Brexit would likely affect the Euro/USD rate similarly, meaning that the GBP/Euro rate could go either, way or even stay the same.

A Stay vote would likely see the GBP improve against the Euro, back to where it was a few months ago, or even higher.

Useful article from the Telegraph here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11698875/Emigration-Why-British-expats-have-nothing-to-fear-from-Brexit.html

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby detourer » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:38 pm

Well over 6 million are foreign-born residents in Spain [as opposed to around 2.5 million from member states].
What do those 6 million NOT get or have access to?
If or when the UK leaves the EU how will you be different to the already 6 million?
Go to the grave in an attractive and well preserved body? Rather skid in sideways, women on each arm, champagne and credit card in each hand, body thoroughly used, abused, totally worn out and screaming …."WOO HOO, WHAT A RIDE"

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby masterob » Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:12 pm

El Cid wrote:
The biggest issue will be health care as that is paid for by the UK. I doubt that this would change as it would clearly be manifestly unfair as all the EU residents remaining in the UK would retain their NHS rights as that is based on residency so how could a similar number of UK citizens in the EU be denied similar rights?


Since when has the concept of "fair" ever played any part in dealings with the EU? Most of them do not understand its meaning! The Podemos guy over there was arguing that the 200,000+ Spaniards in the UK should not loose any entitlement to welfare benefits they may receive. Just like Brits in Spain get them I suppose - not!

I would suggest that much will depend on the reaction of the rest of the EU when we leave. There are suggestions that, in a fit of pique, they could be difficult over subsequent negotiations in which case don't expect an emboldened UK to simply roll over. There could well be a tit for tat scenario and sadly UK imigrants in Spain (and elsewhere in the EU) could suffer collateral damage.

If you believe the "remainers" propaganda, hell and brimstone will descend on the UK should it leave so either way life in Spain might not be that good if, amongst other things, you depend on income from the UK!!

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby katy » Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:21 pm

Sid is correct. With hundreds of thousands of Spanish in the UK Spain wouldn't want to rock the boat. There are also reciprocal healthcare agreements with other countries although most are Commonwealth ones. Until Jan there were also arrangements with Russia and other satellite countries.

Currency is always an unknown, anything can happen. Certainly sterling usually drops before an election. The pound could go higher on leaving if freed of the noose of EU regulations. Even if they did leave, and I don't think they will, unfortunately, it would take years to sort out.

Don't forget there was life before Spain joined the EU. Has always had a lot of British pensioners living there. Perhaps there was always an agreement in Spain. :think:

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby olive » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:54 pm

After a Brexit, I wouldn't put it past a future government to freeze state pensions to expats who have the temerity to live in the EU. That would save a few squids.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby El Cid » Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:48 pm

Why would they do that? They allow pensions to rise if you are in a country with reciprocal arrangements and Spain would almost certainly be included - even the Philippines, Mauritius, Israel, Jamaica and Turkey are included!

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby markwilding » Sun Feb 21, 2016 5:56 pm

For pensioners I can't imagine much change. As long as they can show the ability to support themselves, It would carry on the same.
One change might be the obligation to carry ID cards again.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby markwilding » Sun Feb 21, 2016 6:17 pm

masterob wrote:
Since when has the concept of "fair" ever played any part in dealings with the EU? Most of them do not understand its meaning! The Podemos guy over there was arguing that the 200,000+ Spaniards in the UK should not loose any entitlement to welfare benefits they may receive. Just like Brits in Spain get them I suppose - not!

This is one of the great misconceptions, UK citizens are entitled to benefits but must comply to the same conditions as the Spanish.

Neither Spanish or British people receive it unless something like 12 months employment has been completed. It's only paid if the contract has come to an end, it is not possible to leave a job and get it

Leaving might change this. In theory, it might mean we could be better off although I doubt it.


I usually don't bother to sign on for the couple of months in summer I don't work but one year, my wife suggested I should. It's not bad either if I remember rightly up to 75 per cent of earnings up to a maximum of 18 months.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby El Cid » Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:25 pm

markwilding wrote:One change might be the obligation to carry ID cards again.


That would be a distinct improvement!

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby masterob » Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:37 pm

The social security benefits paid in Spain are far from comparable to those paid in the UK i.e. they are inferior or is that another misconception?

If I am correct then it seems to me grossly unfair for us British taxpayers to have to provide outsiders with equal benefits.

I guess I digress from the OP!

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby markwilding » Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:03 pm

masterob wrote:The social security benefits paid in Spain are far from comparable to those paid in the UK i.e. they are inferior or is that another misconception?

If I am correct then it seems to me grossly unfair for us British taxpayers to have to provide outsiders with equal benefits.


You are not straying from the OP because while we are in the EU, the Spanish cannot legally pay benefits in any other way to other EU citizens unless of course they do they same as Cameron and get a special arrangement. If we leave, this could change, although as I have already said it is highly unlikely that it will in a way that will benefit us.

As the requirements and system is completely different, it is really difficult to compare. Whether or not they are inferior or better really depends on how much you earn and how long you are unemployed.

The Latin Americans probably benefit from not being from the EU as they get housing subsidies and financial help.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby costakid » Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:33 pm

Don’t worry peeps, we will not be leaving the EU. Common sense will prevail.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby anyroads » Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:58 pm

I reckon, you would be getting less Euros for your £.

Somewhere in the region of 1.10, I reckon.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby Manchesteral » Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:33 pm

gerryh wrote:What effect, if any, will it have on us who live here in Spain full time if GB leaves the EU?

I suggest you just reply to my question and don't go into the reasons why GB should/ shroud not leave the EU. That discussion requires a topic of it's own.

Cheers
Gerry


I don't have the answer to that Gerry, all I can say is that there were lots of britsliving there before we joined the E U, so I guess things will remain pretty much the same.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby White Horse » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:30 pm

costakid wrote:Don’t worry peeps, we will not be leaving the EU. Common sense will prevail.

I honestly hope that common sense does prevail and that the UK electorate vote to leave the EU on 23rd June.
I doubt that ex-pats already living in Spain will have their comforts affected. :wink:

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby markwilding » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:15 pm

One of the arguments that Bexit supporters cite is that freedom of movement forces down wages.What they forget is that some jobs particularly in the tourist and resturant trade have always relied on cheap foreign labour because this is work which locals just don't want to do.

If no reciprocal ageement is made, then they will go anyway illegally. I was actually an illegal worker in the late eighties here in Spain and at the same time London was full of Spanish and Potuguese workers even though both countries weren't in the EU.

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby detourer » Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:38 am

Spain has been hauled before that many Commissions, EU Courts of Justice, EU Executives etc. etc. for infringements or non-compliance, hardly ever taking notice or abiding before or after……..

How will things in Spain change for ex-pats if the UK leaves the EU?.............. Haha........ :lol:
Go to the grave in an attractive and well preserved body? Rather skid in sideways, women on each arm, champagne and credit card in each hand, body thoroughly used, abused, totally worn out and screaming …."WOO HOO, WHAT A RIDE"

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby masterob » Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:21 am

White Horse, I agree with you. I do hope we vote OUT! A very rattled Cameron in the House yesterday, I wonder why? Today we have some Companies writing in the Times, at the behest of Cameron, supporting him. Surprise, surprise, Vodaphone being one of them, they of course, conveniently pay their taxes in Luxemburg!

Mark, the argument you cite is the least quoted. Those most quoted are - Britain being able to decide for itself rather than directed by Brussels; full control of border to limit numbers entering; trading freely with the rest of the world and, not least, the saving of the payments made to the EU! Let's not forget that it's thanks to the tax-payers of Germany and the UK that Spain built much of its modern infrastructure including its excellent AVE and motorway network!

The situation of Brits living in the EU was raised during yesterday's announcement, Cameron merely said they would be OK if we remained in the EU but otherwise a matter for the countries in which they lived. Not very helpful and just part of his "fear" agenda to defend the weakness of his position!

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Re: What effect on us if GB leaves the EU?

Postby katy » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:04 pm

Yes just a third of large companies signed the Downing St. Drafted letter amongst them Heathrow Airport...owned by a Spanish company :crazy: The expat situation was planted. I wouldn't worry at all.
The latest is the sterling scare with lurid headlines that the pound dropped to it's lowest for several years after Boris joined the out team. In november the dollar rate was £1.42 today it was 1.41.8. Likewise the Euro, a minor change.
i would say more but remembered Gerry's request :wave: perhaps someone should start a thread in Amigos...or maybe not :think: :lol:


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