UKIP looking ok :)

[JWhite]

Well I have just been watching the vote take place in Westminster and afterwards Peter Bone of the Tory party said there were 115 votes to support the amendment to the Queen's Speech. He did say that there could possibly be a Referendum BEFORE the next election in 2015 if LibDems could be made to support the vote and they could get the Bill through Parliament. He also said 2017 was the absolute latest that it would take place. He said the feeling in the Tory Party now was that there would be a Referendum which will be bad news for Labour and leaves them nowhere to go, especially if the public support them in such a move as Milliband has repeatedly said they do not want a Referendum and feels that this issue is not uppermost in people's minds He, like many of his other supporters keep harping on about jobs, the NHS, housing and education being more important to them.

However, they have all missed the point - the reason the EU is considered very important to most people and probably the most important is that Immigration (the No. 1 issue in my opinion) and the contributions towards the EU, £53m per day at the last count plus £770,000 pa increase for this year which has just been announced, will create lots of jobs, housing, NHS services and build schools and generally do a lot of good for the country with that amount of money That plus we can once more control our borders which obviously also frees up many more jobs anyway for our own people, plus lowers the pressure on public services, housing, education etc. and goes a long way to answering the immigration issue which has been bubbling away over many years.

The next few days will be interesting

[markwilding]

He did say that there could possibly be a Referendum BEFORE the next election in 2015 if LibDems could be made to support the vote and they could get the Bill through Parliament.
The next few days will be interesting

The Libdems have made it clear that they won't vote in favor of a referendum at least during this Parliament.They voted NO this time so why would they vote yes before 2015?

[Lavanda]

Thanks for that, Olive. Sometimes debating something weighty on here is really difficult because, as you wrote, some posters just skim read and some subjects need a bit more effort. I posted the piece in full rather than put a link in the hope that it would be read. The UK is in appaling shape and getting worse daily. Some days I think you are optimistic in writing that the UK will last to 2017 but you may be right and the country will manage to struggle on until then.

[katy]

Labours biggest donor wants a referendum

[Lavanda]

"obviously also frees up many more jobs anyway for our own people"

In theory, yes, JWhite. I'm not going to dispute the theory but where are these skilled people going to come from overnight? The UK will need a minimum of 10 years to turn around the skills shortage in the UK. First of all it will need to do something about basic reading and writing - and that's just among the teachers. There is a percentage of unemployed British people who are actually unemployable right now. The NHS (such as it is) may collapse completely without immigrant workers. It all sounds a simple equation - immigrants out, UK workers in - but I think the practical might prove more complex.

[katy]

Do onion pickers need to read and write

[markwilding]

"obviously also frees up many more jobs anyway for our own people"

In theory, yes, JWhite. I'm not going to dispute the theory but where are these skilled people going to come from overnight? The UK will need a minimum of 10 years to turn around the skills shortage in the UK. First of all it will need to do something about basic reading and writing - and that's just among the teachers. There is a percentage of unemployed British people who are actually unemployable right now. The NHS (such as it is) may collapse completely without immigrant workers. It all sounds a simple equation - immigrants out, UK workers in - but I think the practical might prove more complex.

Exactly,
All this simplistic theory is very impractical. How would we be able to round up all these foreigners and kick them out? People who were legal would suddenly become illegal? How the hell would that be sorted out?
What about people who were born in the UK but whose siblings and family weren't?

What about the British workers working abroad? I'm not talking about the pensioners but people who have taken advantage of the free movement to try their luck elsewhere. Would they be sent back ?

[pete_l]

... they do not want a Referendum and feels that this issue is not uppermost in people's minds

He's right. Most people in the UK don't give a dam' about the EU or "europe" or being in or out - just so long as they don't have to learn french. If they are "forced" to have a referendum, I suspect of lot of people will vote against whichever side is most ardent, just to punish them for making the voters think about something they aren't interested in.

Cameron made a remark recently that the Tories spend too much effort talking about things they (the tories) care about and too little talking about things the electorate care about. Europe is a prime example.
There are lots of tories who have a irrational dislike of the EU - or anything foreign, for that matter. Their belief is largely religious - i.e. a matter of faith. And as a matter of faith, it's impervious to facts, logic or argumentation. Just like the fanatical "innies" are, too.

[markwilding]

... they do not want a Referendum and feels that this issue is not uppermost in people's minds

He's right. Most people in the UK don't give a dam' about the EU or "europe" or being in or out - just so long as they don't have to learn french. If they are "forced" to have a referendum, I suspect of lot of people will vote against whichever side is most ardent, just to punish them for making the voters think about something they aren't interested in.

Cameron made a remark recently that the Tories spend too much effort talking about things they (the tories) care about and too little talking about things the electorate care about. Europe is a prime example.
There are lots of tories who have a fanatical dislike of the EU - or anything foreign, for that matter. Their belief is largely religious - i.e. a matter of faith with no basis in fact. As as a matter of faith, it's impervious to facts, logic or argumentation. Just like the fanatical "innies" are, too.

Pete,
I agree 100 per cent. The conservatives are trying to find their way in the new way of things and some think that going back to the good old days will win votes. Very similar to what happened with Labour in the seventies and eighties.
Cameron has a big problem because in the end the electorate decides, not the sirens on the right or left. It decided that it didn't want Labour but didn't decide it wanted The Conservatives either. So we have a coalition
These tory back benchers fear most is losing their seat in Parliament so they need to be seen to be doing something regarding Europe. UKIP have already said they might not stand against a sceptic MP. They knew it would be virtually impossible to force a referendum in this parliament so why go through with it. In my opinion it's because It doesn't really make any difference to them who wins the election as long as they keep their seat and if UKIP do have a candidate standing they might let another party in, in what would normally be regarded as a safe seat.

[JWhite]

... they do not want a Referendum and feels that this issue is not uppermost in people's minds

He's right. Most people in the UK don't give a dam' about the EU or "europe" or being in or out - just so long as they don't have to learn french. If they are "forced" to have a referendum, I suspect of lot of people will vote against whichever side is most ardent, just to punish them for making the voters think about something they aren't interested in.

Cameron made a remark recently that the Tories spend too much effort talking about things they (the tories) care about and too little talking about things the electorate care about. Europe is a prime example.
There are lots of tories who have a irrational dislike of the EU - or anything foreign, for that matter. Their belief is largely religious - i.e. a matter of faith. And as a matter of faith, it's impervious to facts, logic or argumentation. Just like the fanatical "innies" are, too.

You obviously don't read newspaper forums or talk to anyone living in the UK. I don't know anyone who wants to stay in in my family or friends circle, the only one that defends it and it is within his interests to do so is my son who works for the Aerospace industry and his job involves attending meetings and dealing with production problems in all their companies in France, Germany and Poland. He said last weekend that he thinks the UK should stay in "from his point of view". Everyone votes what is in their interests with regard to Europe. There are very little advantages for the average job here who have suffered from lack of jobs, deteriorating public services, deteriorating education (due to 200n language students having to be taught English and not enough time to be spent with British students), housing shortages which will never be fixed with more and more immigrants coming in and expecting accommodation to be provided which the government have no say in, and NHS which is in crisis now. Benefits are being reduced because they have become unaffordable and the government have no option but to pay immigrants the same as British people. The whole system is crumbling and the only way is to leave the EU and use the much needed money to put right what is wrong with this country. Cameron will not get what he wants in any negotiations because as far as Germany & France are concerned, they are not going to be left paying for the rest of the 3rd world countries to be bailed out constantly whilst Britain reduces its contributions or wants to change its immigration system to prevent them coming here when they would naturally then be forced to go to the other EU countries already under pressure. 3rd world countries also will not vote for Christmas as the Turkeys who receive the most out without putting anything in. The odds are too unfairly balanced against Cameron getting what he wants so the only way is out.

Also there is about half the country wants out of the EU at the moment.

As for the problems elucidated by Mark, yourself and Lavanda, I agree it would not be easy to extricate ourselves and there would be many problems, but no more so than all the ones we had when we went in. As for the unskilled people here, well you can blame Labour for that "education, education, education" just left millions without basic English, Maths & Writing skills after the mass immigration pulled in by Labour to protect their voting base, plus Blair also convinced thousands of families into sending their kids to universities where they undertook Mickey Mouse courses which have turned out to be useless.

When my parents emigrated to Australia in 1960, english skilled workers were welcomed there and when I went with my parents, I was 10 yrs old. The school I attended had to move me up 2 yrs in the school classes as my education was 2 yrs in advance to theirs. I was setting maths lessons for my grade in front of the class I was so advanced. England used to be the skills capital of the world and we were respected everywhere in the world for it. Successive governments have meddled with the education system and it was plummeted in its skills value and educational achievements ever since.

[markwilding]

. As for the unskilled people here, well you can blame Labour for that "education, education, education" just left millions without basic English

It's really hard to take you seriously when you write throwaway statements like that.

[katy]

All a bit off topic but the UK was rated 6th in the developed world for education.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-20498356

I agree, Europe is a big talking point in the UK right now. I know a lot of diverse people and everyone says ....OUT! Of course whether people will get of their asses and vote is another matter. There are only a small amount of floating voters and most return to their traditional roots on election day.

[pete_l]

... Benefits are being reduced because they have become unaffordable and the government have no option but to pay immigrants the same as British people. The whole system is crumbling and the only way is to leave the EU and use the much needed money to put right what is wrong with this country.

OK, I see now that this is basically a long, long moan about life the universe and everything - wrapped up in a "it must be the government / EU's fault"

So far as the benefits thing - that's simply incorrect. Just wrong.
Half of UK benefits are paid as Old-age pensions, over £70 BILLION a year. immigrants (and others who haven't paid NI for many decades) don't get this. The UK government does not pay immigrants the the same as UK citizens, just go to any of the benefits-calculation website and they say things like

does not work out eligibility to benefits for some groups of people because special rules apply and the estimates may not be correct. These are:
...
People who are not British or Irish citizens

So the facts just don't support your views.

[JWhite]

"because special rules apply"

This is a standard statement published on many types of benefit on offer to the public in general. You have quoted one where they state specifically where the applicants are not British or Irish. There are always exceptions to some benefits paid but the essence of what I was saying you completely ignored i.e. that immigrants coming here are entitled to the same working tax credits, child benefit, housing benefit, council tax discount etc. as every other UK citizen even if they have just arrived unless you can find legislation to the contrary in THESE specific instances. Pensions are based on contributions made and the same rules apply equally to UK citizens in that what you receive is based on contributions made throughout your working life so is not worthy of comparison.

[markwilding]

The facts also say that EU immigrants are less likely to claim than UK citizens.
Most studies find that immigrants to the UK make a net positive fiscal contribution to the economy.
Read this
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/46670 ... omania.htm
and this
http://kenanmalik.wordpress.com/2013/03 ... mmigration

[JWhite]

Mark,

There have also been studies made to the contrary. If you read this below, it says that broadly speaking they pay more in taxes than they take out but if you read it carefully you will notice things like "are subject to key assumptions" and also there are many references in the article regarding the skill level, age, lengths of stay, etc. of incoming immigrants and what they would be expected to contribute, for instance a young unskilled immigrant can come here unemployed with his family of 4 kids, not get a job and claim and then he can bring in his elderly aunts and uncles and grandparents, also not working and a liability on the state. This paragraph sums it up nicely :

"In theory, migrants who are young, skilled and doing highly-paid jobs are likely to make a more positive net fiscal contribution than those with low skills and low labour market participation rates.

According to the government

If you read the article it is all based on ifs and buts and no-one can say for certain if the skilled immigrants outweigh the unskilled ones who come here and either work for low wages paying low tax and will qualify for benefits and housing, NHS etc.

http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/br ... gration-uk

Also this from MigrationUK.co.uk:

"Economic benefit

13. Clearly some migrants bring economic benefit to the UK but, taken as a whole, what they add to production is counter balanced by their addition to the population. The only major inquiry ever conducted in the UK was carried out by the Select Committee on Economic Affairs of the House of Lords in 2007/08. In April 2008 they reported that "We have found no evidence for the argument, made by the government, business and many others, that net immigration - immigration minus emigration - generates significant economic benefits for the existing UK population." As regards the contribution of migrants to the Exchequer, they concluded that "The overall fiscal impact of immigration is likely to be small, though this masks significant variations across different immigrant groups." See http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... 2/8202.htm

14. It is noteworthy that the House of Lords endorsed most of the arguments put forward by Migration Watch UK (Briefing Paper 1.18 and Briefing Paper 1.20).

15. A report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research stated in 2011 that it expected the medium term economic benefit of migration from the eight East European accession countries to be "negligible "

Until we get ACTUAL statistics to back up these reports, it is pure conjecture on the part of most of the reports made as to whether they offer a net contribution.

[janda_grant2]

To quote Mark Twian there are "Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Trouble with statistics is you can make them say anything you want them to! Give me facts any day to help me make up my mind!

[pete_l]

that immigrants coming here are entitled to the same working tax credits, child benefit, housing benefit, council tax discount etc. as every other UK citizen even if they have just arrived

... and that is by design. Saying that "the government has no choice ..." is patently absurd. They are the government, they can change the rules to whatever they please - usually based on popular opinion about what is "right" or "just". If the government wanted to change the benefit rules, for example to be like Spain's rules, they would be able to do so. That they haven't is a combination of there being no public pressure to do so, and that the UK economy is sufficiently robust to be able to afford such benefits.

On the subject of benefits, the UK economy (so far as benefits recipients are concerned) is largely a closed system. Monies paid to claimants gets spent by them on food, housing, energy etc. so it stays mostly in the UK and therefore profits the suppliers who pay their employees with it, gets taxed and stays in general circulation. It's therefore not lost out of the economy, it just takes a different path through the financial system - where it can be spent over and over again.

[JWhite]

that immigrants coming here are entitled to the same working tax credits, child benefit, housing benefit, council tax discount etc. as every other UK citizen even if they have just arrived

... and that is by design. Saying that "the government has no choice ..." is patently absurd. They are the government, they can change the rules to whatever they please - usually based on popular opinion about what is "right" or "just". If the government wanted to change the benefit rules, for example to be like Spain's rules, they would be able to do so. That they haven't is a combination of there being no public pressure to do so, and that the UK economy is sufficiently robust to be able to afford such benefits.

On the subject of benefits, the UK economy (so far as benefits recipients are concerned) is largely a closed system. Monies paid to claimants gets spent by them on food, housing, energy etc. so it stays mostly in the UK and therefore profits the suppliers who pay their employees with it, gets taxed and stays in general circulation. It's therefore not lost out of the economy, it just takes a different path through the financial system - where it can be spent over and over again.

Well you had better tell Brussels that, because they are the ones that said "you WILL take immigrants, you WILL pay them the same benefits as any other UK resident, as a member of the EU and as the UK has the lowest unemployment rate in the EU you WILL provide them with jobs ".

Look it up !

On the question of where benefits are spent, I have read several posts from people who actually know immigrant families who send their benefits back to their families in their home countries and watch them sending money orders at the Post Office counter, and as they can claim for child benefit for children NOT in the UK, your theory is blown out of the water as they would obviously want (I would hope) to ensure that money gets back to them or their relatives to care for their other children in their home countries. I came across this article which rather dispels your theory too from the Guardian. Obviously this doesn't apply to UK Residents but the money goes out in such huge amounts as to worry global economists as they compare the amounts being sent out in addition to world aid :

"Migrants in the UK sent nearly $4bn in remittances to India in 2011, according to World Bank estimates, compared with the $450m in UK aid it received that year. Bangladesh received $740m in remittances from the UK in 2011; its aid amounted to $370m."

This is the full article :

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-develo ... shadow-aid

[Mowser]

Which other countries have imposed restrictions?

Apart from Britain, eight countries have imposed restrictions of some kind on Romanians and Bulgarians, which will expire at the same time:

Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Malta
Spain
The Netherlands