And I answered that we had just come out of severe lockdowns. The death rate doesn't rise immediately after a lockdown because there is a process which starts with a rise in contagion, then one in hospitalisations then finally one in deaths. On that basis, contagion can be dropping while deaths are still high because of the lag between the three stages,Lavanda wrote: ↑Mon Jul 12, 2021 2:49 pm Paddy, your post implied that the vaccines were the cause of the decline in deaths this year/time but I answered you by posting that, last Summer, deaths also fell — yet there were no vaccines. Ergo, the fall in deaths is not as a result of vaccines in my opinion.
This time there is a rise in contagion but there doesn't seem to be the same ruse in hospitalisations or deaths but this cannot be verified properly yet, at least not for a few more weeks. Now, what is the difference in this spike to others? Oh yes, the vaccine.
As was already pointed out by the graphs, contagion was quite low last July while it's rather high at the moment in the UK compared to this time last year so obviously not many deaths In July last year. Deaths came later once the 2nd wave took hold, it's where a certain country is in the spike that matters not the time of year.