The Great Spanish Crash

[gerryh]

There's a programme, The Great Spanish Crash, on BBC2 tonight at 8:00 PM that might be worth watching.
Cheers
Gerry

[costakid]

More for the doom and gloomers. More knocking and gloating no doubt.

[gerryh]

Viewing is not compulsory.
Those with open minds can watch it and decide for themselves.
Cheers
Gerry

[olive]

I remember posting on this forum a few years back "but just who is going to buy all these properties being built everywhere?"

Now we know.

[katy]

The fact is the blip started about 2006 on the CDS but it's convenient to blame the credit crunch Anyone with any sense could see the it couldn't last, just suprised it went on as long as it did.

[Julie]

Heres the link to it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... ish_Crash/

[frank]

More for the doom and gloomers. More knocking and gloating no doubt.

If you had watched it you'd have seen it was an accurate, factual account of what caused caused the problem and what actually happened. If there was any "knocking" it was by the various Spanish politicians, bankers etc that were interviewed. I thought it very watchable, and looking at some other forums, so did others. Panorama put out some good programmes, if you want a bit of balance they are often ripping UK to shreds, housing crisis etc. Did it clash with your soaps?

[anyroads]

"Did it clash with your soaps?"

Soaps ?. But he lives in Malaga !

anyroads

[frank]

"Did it clash with your soaps?"

Soaps ?. But he lives in Malaga !

anyroads

One of the biggest threads on here for years is the one about the possibility of expats losing some UK TV channels, I'd guess there aren't many that don't watch UK TV one way or another.

[Devils Advocate]

Well worth the watch, thanks Gerry, we'd have missed it.

I thought it was made with little or no sensationalisn and certainly put me in the picture a bit more about the massive problems faced now.

I never realised Spain did reach such high world importance both in terms of output and growth a short while back, and one can't help feeling it all came to soon following the poverty of the 40' 50' 60's....they didn't appear to know how to handle it.

I, like many, just would have blamed the slump on "Greedy bankers","Greedy Builders" "Greedy buyers" etc........but taking the programme at face value now believe it was a coming together of a set of circumstances that had disaster written all over it.

Yep, greed was an ingrediant, however I think having umpteen autonomos running riot with no proper control from Madrid was just as big a nail in the coffin. I also now feel even more convinced that if Spain had not have been in Euro things would not have become this bad, they threw their powers of self help away when they joined, totally powerless. I now understand why they are not keen on bail outs either.............and I admire the govt. for this.

I don't know which way this will now go but I certainly don't think Spains problems are as dire as Greece for instance...............with a few hard thought decisions in Madrid I'm certain they will come back strong.......all countries have ups and downs, Spain needs its own true financial independance back and things will change.

[frank]

Spain needs its own true financial independance back and things will change.

And therein lies the problem, it's in the EMU and there's no real way out. Last week there was an agreement to put the ECB in supervisory authority over financial institutions in the single currency area, so even less control for individual countries. Obviously Rajoy is keen to avoid a full bailout, he's seen what has happened to Greece. Merkel and her mates installed their unelected puppet as head of state, and the men in suits are basically running the economy. As the programme summed up, regrettably there is still more to come.

[Devils Advocate]

They've got one ace up their sleeves Frank they haven't yet played............and as time goes by the fear of playing it and losing must get less surely as that "nothing to lose" feeling kicks in.

If Spain were to cry "enough we're out", I think they'd receive support from many a nation were such a decision taken.......more support (without constraints) then they'll get from Merkels and co. in the near future anyway.

The Germans would simply freak out at this prospect and it would give France thoughts too.

Something massive has to happen here, and starting all over again seems as good as any solution to me...........after all, they'll be up to their balls in debt either way...............but with a better chance of a fix not tied to mummys apron strings.

[olive]

I don't think there are many Spanish folk with an appetite to leave the euro. The ones I have talked to all say the Euro has been great for Spain and are horrified when I say Spain would be better off drawing its horns in and leaving the euro.

I don't really see Greece's position being much different from Spains. Greece just got there earlier. As soon as Christmas is over the money markets will start on a country again. Maybe France as Hollande has made such a dismal start. Merkel will want to kick the can further down the road till she is re elected to four more years of luxury , ego massaging and prestige.

[Devils Advocate]

Hi Olive

I don't think there are many Spanish folk with an appetite to leave the euro. The ones I have talked to all say the Euro has been great for Spain and are horrified when I say Spain would be better off drawing its horns in and leaving the euro.

Strange, as with the many Spanish we know and have spoken to in our 12 years of ownership and dealings in Spain I've gleaned just the opposite. Virtually to a man they rue the day they signed up to the Euro and claim all has been downhill since.............I think the majority want out.

I am just glad the UK never joined the Euro, as although all has not been plain sailing over the last 4 years they still have the ability to cut their cloth to suit................something as a lover of Spain I wish they did too............it's killing the country not having that luxury.

OK, I put my hands up and admit I'm more anti Europe than pro, in fact I can see why Nigel Farage has elevated his party to the 3rd in the pecking order, the man speaks a lot of sense about the failings,lies and mis-management of the supposed United Europe. People were scared into becoming believers of the EU, believing that if you did not follow suit you'd be left in the cold.............a lie, and a lie which people are now slowly starting to realise.

If Spain left the Euro, would things really get worse? I've no Crystal ball as has nobody else but something needs to be done, and I'd fancy their chances more with the latter.

Only other thing I'd say is I also think there's a huge difference between Spain and Greeces problems, just as I always used to argue on here there's a huge difference between Spains and the UKs problems,

[katy]

Different causes maybe but both greece and Spain now have the same problem. They are between a rock and a hard place. I read that despite all the austerity measures in Greece they will still have a higher debt level in 2022...not much incentive is there. The euro has never worked was just a question of time.

I think Spain should leave, perhaps not the whole thing but certainly the Euro. As for the UK I wish they would kick us out. Not much chance...they need us more than we need them! I don't think any politician will have the nerve to leave, they like it anyway, the whole Brussels old boys club, plenty of photo shoots and pats on the back.

[frank]

Strange, as with the many Spanish we know and have spoken to in our 12 years of ownership and dealings in Spain I've gleaned just the opposite. Virtually to a man they rue the day they signed up to the Euro and claim all has been downhill since.............I think the majority want out.

Yes, I've heard that, but TBH, I find it hard to understand. Spain has had zillions of euros thrown at it, until recently it was the biggest recipient of EU funds, it's still a net recipient, what's not to like about that? If a rich relative gives you huge amounts of money, it's then up to you what you do with it. You can invest it, or you can blow it all, but if you squander it all I don't see how you can blame anything on your rich relly! For Spain it was easy money, they seriously believed the tap was never going to be turned off, the money would just keep flowing. I think Spain has been very much the architect of it's own demise, they have only themselves to blame.

[Devils Advocate]

Frank, I'm not the best Googlist in the world as you know. So as I'm eager to learn more about Spains current plight could you tell me in simple terms what all these zillions of Euros given to Spain were all about please?

When were they?, what were they for?, were they bailout-ish type loans or was it money they had the right to claim as other countries no doubt did?
Who got this money?.....Central government in Madrid? How much?............Did Madrid then hand some of this money to the likes of Valencia to build some of the white elephant monstrositys we saw last night?

Spains economy and output did seem to be healthy a few years back by all accounts, something changed, and as I say I think it goes deeper than greedy bankers/builders/candlestick makers.

[olive]

DA. I live in the campo. To a man things have improved immeasurably for farmers. EU grants for one. Farmers still enjoy favourable status on things like paying lower autonomos and tax breaks. It wasn't that long ago that farmers used animals for ploughing etc. (I still see some horses for ploughing near us) but in the main they have traded up to tractors and auto spraying rigs (rather than having two paid labourers following behind spraying).

They alll say the euro has been good for them. They are however divided on what the government ought to do. More austerity or get some growth and a bit of austerity. Now that does casue fierce argument.

I cannot see any fix that will get Spain out of this mess that won't take ten or more years. Only a WW and no one wants that.

Britain looks to be in a good place but in truth it isn't. Printing money (QE) looks good but it is mortgaging the future and ruining peoples pension pots. It will be interesting to see what the new bank of England boss( a Johnny Foreigner!) does on his double the salary of Merv King. Personally I believe that when the mess hits the fan Britain will be led into the euro by our well meaning leader of the day and that will be within five years. The only hope is that the Euro collapses before then.

Farage is so right about Europe and the EU and yet our politicians just go along with signing away our rights. They just love the power, ego trip and expenses of being part of what is a frighteningly and decidedly undemocratic organisation. It is happening right under our noses but most folk don't give a damn.

[Devils Advocate]

Hi Olive, our place is in the campo too, although from what you're saying nowhere near as industrial as your neck of the woods.....no tractors,machinary or the like. Mainly man,donkey and moped with plastic box on the back

So, I assume these grants are the same as all EU farmers get/got?.............we've got fields with rock all in them around our house here in the UK , and the rumours are the farmers still pick up an EU bunce, so if that's where the zillions went to in Spain they've only done what others have.

As for the UK, I doubt you need worry.I'm sure it'll survive without austerity plans, as I'm still sure Spain may have without the Euro.

You only have to listen to Camerons rhetoric of late..........he's not sounding that pro Europe himself at the moment.........he was quite forthright in the commons today.............maybe just jumping on the Bandwagon that Nigel Farage has hopefully now got well and truly rolling.

I don't know the causes and answers to Spains plight, as I'm sure you don't............It's just my gut feeling that the Euro has done them no favours, nor has having a dozen or more seperate "countries" all posing to be under the one Spanish flag.

[katy]

Spain received money for everything. All the high speed railways, motorways, some leading nowhere and of course money for grandoise projects. Massive tourism grants, one grant paid for a 21 million euro hotel in the Canaries. even small roundabout construction attracted 30% to 50% EU funding. Then of course there was corruption, a lot of money was received for projects which never took place. They got access to UK fishing grounds that they never had before. There was/is even money from the EU to lay off seasonal workers. In return Spain became the lap dog of Brussels, voting si for everything. They boasted that they were always the first to put new laws into place...although they didn't bother implementing them I did hear on the programme that propping up Spain was costing the EU dearly

If the Spanish are anti-europe now it is only because things have soured. All the Spanish I know were really keen a couple of years ago. The are now *beep* off that handouts are tapering. Also there are new trade concessions for Morrocco. Europe has been opened to them and they are selling good fruit and veg cheaper than Spanish produce.