Coronavirus

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Lavanda
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Lavanda » Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:23 pm


markwilding
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby markwilding » Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:28 pm

I can only read the headline because your link is behind a paywall.

Lavanda
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Lavanda » Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:42 pm

A calm, well-researched article that has a bar chart that shows that deaths, per month, per 100,000 in the UK has been stable year on year for the last few years APART from last April when the number shot up. The second and third waves of the virus have NOT been as deadly as the first. These are facts. The rest is propaganda.

ashtondav
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby ashtondav » Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:17 pm

That is correct. Better treatment and improved knowledge results in fewer deaths.

The problem is the overwhelming hospitalization rate and it’s impact on other surgery. Also while death is a bad outcome, permanently scarred and damaged lung tissue is pretty unpleasant and life shortening.

Beachcomber
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Beachcomber » Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:00 pm

I can read all of the article linked to by Lavanda and I certainly do not subscribe to the Telegraph.

Anyway, the graph tells much of the story:
Attachments
Telegraph.jpg

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:22 pm

Lavanda wrote: Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:42 pm A calm, well-researched article that has a bar chart that shows that deaths, per month, per 100,000 in the UK has been stable year on year for the last few years APART from last April when the number shot up. The second and third waves of the virus have NOT been as deadly as the first. These are facts. The rest is propaganda.
Looking at the graph posted by Beachcomber I would disagree that our current wave is less deadly than the first....the second wave is the third wave. There is not a dip yet. Spain had a dip in December and then is climbing again in January. The UK is still growing from the low base in September.

Additionally January we will be a horror show. 7 days so far have been higher than any day in April. April was 23,000 deaths. January is 18,000 so far, with 13 reporting days to come. To the end of May there were 38k total deaths and the June was single figures per day. It started to climb in October and since October 1st we have had 50k deaths.

Here is the raw data if you would like to look at it
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

olive
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby olive » Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:00 am

More progress on QR codes to prove vaccination and thus facilitate travel or indeed access to open spaces. Might be called Common Pass.

EU hope to agree standards and format at the end of January. Presumably this January. More available on Euronews.

katy
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby katy » Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:41 am

Yes Olive it may become the norm. I am sure Airlines will be asking for the QR code, hotels and theatres too. Unless the vaccine does not work.

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spanish_lad
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby spanish_lad » Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:58 am

With the amount of people vacinated already, i wonder why we are not seeing a drop in numbers ? Is it 'too soon' still ?
Alhaurin el Grande since ´99, working at the airport since 2011.

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Enrique
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Enrique » Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:55 pm

Hi S.L.

Some light reading..............

https://www.mydr.com.au/travel-health/v ... ntibodies/

The people currently receiving the vaccination are the elderly and are currently Shielding so not out and about anyway.

Hopefully it will fall away when the "active" age groups get their vaccinations.
UNIX is basically a simple operating system, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.

Beachcomber
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Beachcomber » Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:20 pm

Because there is no proof that the vaccine prevents transmission, it may just relieve the symptoms.

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firsttango
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby firsttango » Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:20 pm

Numbers will rapidly decrease when warmer weather arrives around May and lo and behold they will claim its all down to lockdowns and the vaccine :silent:

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:44 pm

Why is Brazil having record high numbers, it is summer there?

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:02 pm

spanish_lad wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:58 am With the amount of people vacinated already, i wonder why we are not seeing a drop in numbers ? Is it 'too soon' still ?
Numbers are 2 part. Infections and deaths many factors influence both. Here are just a few

1. The UK have chosen to give one dose to many. The Pfizer vaccine is only 45% effective on one dose. So really many people have got the vaccine but are not really vaccinated until they get the second dose
2. The infection rate is falling. The 7 days moving average has fallen from 60,000 to 43,000
3. Deaths take from 2 to 8 weeks to occur after infection. So deaths will follow the infection rate but will lag by up to 8 weeks. In the UK the new record high infection rate occured around Dec 20th, this is why we are seeing record deaths now. By and large the people who are dieing now got infected before anyone received even the first dose.

Lavanda
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Lavanda » Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:47 pm

I might consider becoming a volunteer nurse ...

https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/kyri ... 00250.html

katy
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby katy » Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:58 pm

firsttango wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:20 pm Numbers will rapidly decrease when warmer weather arrives around May and lo and behold they will claim its all down to lockdowns and the vaccine :silent:
Yes, I think we may be stuck in the cycle of lockdowns. By autumn and start of flu season everyone will need vaccinating again. Some Scientist said yesterday that 1 in 8 may have had Covid, if so surely that would be herd immunity :think:

katy
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby katy » Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:02 pm

katy wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:41 am Yes Olive it may become the norm. I am sure Airlines will be asking for the QR code, hotels and theatres too. Unless the vaccine does not work.
Saga has just announced that everyone will have to be vaccinated to go on their cruises. :lol:

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firsttango
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby firsttango » Wed Jan 20, 2021 5:14 pm

Paddy Pumpkin wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:44 pm Why is Brazil having record high numbers, it is summer there?
Brazil is a huge country with a very varying climate "The climate varies from hot and dry in the arid interior to humid and sticky in the tropical rainforests of the Amazon jungle." In the coastal areas which are hot and dry the majority of the areas have a R value 1 or under, whereas in the wet humid inland areas the R rate is 1 and above and overall Brazils figures are comparatively better than the U.K when measured against Population as brazil has more than three times the population of the U.K yet it only has slightly over twice the deaths of the U.K

U.K Deaths per million of pop: 1370

Brazil Deaths per million of pop: 992 (no lockdown or severe restrictions to speak of)

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Wed Jan 20, 2021 6:09 pm

The UK population density is 11 times that of Brazil (25 v 275 per square km). So with less people near each other then of course it won't spread. Although I am not sure why the comparison country vs country when the point is season vs season.

I asked why it is not disapperaing in the summer in Brazil and when you look at the graph the numbers are higher there than in winter there.

I am attaching a graph of South Africa. Is it disapperaing in summer there?
Attachments
Capture.JPG

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Wed Jan 20, 2021 6:10 pm

katy wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:58 pm
firsttango wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:20 pm Numbers will rapidly decrease when warmer weather arrives around May and lo and behold they will claim its all down to lockdowns and the vaccine :silent:
Yes, I think we may be stuck in the cycle of lockdowns. By autumn and start of flu season everyone will need vaccinating again. Some Scientist said yesterday that 1 in 8 may have had Covid, if so surely that would be herd immunity :think:
what % do you reckon we need to have herd immunity?


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