Coronavirus

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Lavanda
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Lavanda » Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:03 pm

I must be a bit bored today but I have been thinking that figures for increased deaths year on year or even decreased deaths is meaningless if there are more people than ever before being born. We need to look at the increase in population year on year and divide by something and multiply by something else and then take away the number we first thought about. As far as I can see, whether we take x or y as the figure for deaths in 2020 it is still a fraction of deaths caused by previous pandemics across the globe, ie Spanish Influenza. If you count the number of deaths in the early 1920s, when the population was less overall and especially after the Great War, I think we can see what a real pandemic looks like. Covid-19 is not it, in my opinion.

olive
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby olive » Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:23 pm

But... the anti conspiracy theorists would say the deaths would have been much higher if there hadn't been lockdowns, social distancing measures etc.

We will only know the true picture from excess deaths in years to come looking back. They do give a picture though showing more than usual even allowing for your point of increased population. Spanish Flu. What cutting edge treatments like intensive care units and respirators did they have available? Medicine has moved on a huge way in 100 years.

Manchesteral
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Manchesteral » Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:37 pm

Help, I'm desperate, does anyone know of an antigen rapid corona virus testing station within Madrid airport, thanks in advance 8)

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:48 pm

Lavanda wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:03 pm I must be a bit bored today but I have been thinking that figures for increased deaths year on year or even decreased deaths is meaningless if there are more people than ever before being born. We need to look at the increase in population year on year and divide by something and multiply by something else and then take away the number we first thought about. As far as I can see, whether we take x or y as the figure for deaths in 2020 it is still a fraction of deaths caused by previous pandemics across the globe, ie Spanish Influenza. If you count the number of deaths in the early 1920s, when the population was less overall and especially after the Great War, I think we can see what a real pandemic looks like. Covid-19 is not it, in my opinion.
If you need to understand the numbers then look at excess deaths. It is the deaths over and above the average for the previous 5 years and adjusted for population growth. In one single figure everything you want is there. Spain estimate for 2020 was 68,000 or roughly 17% more people died in Spain last year than you would expect.

You are quite right we are no where near the Spanish Flu levels (can I call it that or is it racist, or is that only if I say British Strain that it is racist). So do we wait until we get to those levels of deaths before we act? Just let nature run it's course? Should we do that all the time and give up medical intervention in all circumstances?

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firsttango
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby firsttango » Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:52 pm

Paddy Pumpkin wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:38 pm That is not the data....that is the page to request the data.

You still cannot supply the source data. Additionally the screenshot on your earlier posr is just that a screenshot from a non verified source which has been shown to be incomplete data.

If you have total faith in your data and your abilities with statistics and data maybe we should have a little bet. Will you give me the same 9% advantage that you thought was insignificant in the excess deaths numbers?

Please explain how my earlier screenshot graphic and the link to the Spanish Gov website from whence it came is a Non Verified source? Its the Gov website....I can show it to you but you really need to try and understand that it is an official Gov Url... :shh:

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/estadEstudios/ ... nes_11.pdf

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:14 pm

This data you showed is a screenshot...linked to another website. I am attaching the screenshot again

Click on my screenshot....that is not a Spanish Government website. If you can't understand that then I have friend from Nigeria who would like to talk to you about helping him move some money. He is as honest as that screenshot link you sent.

The new link to the PDF you just sent is incomplete data that is not up-to-date. Myself and Mark have already shown you why the data is incorrect and incomplete.

If you have such faith that the data is complete and correct let's revisit it in April when the full number has been released. I am happy to take any bet that you like the the death number for 2020 is in excess of 450,000 in Spain.

As for the child like maths. Since it is so simple and childish why not take my 9% EU increase in deaths bet? I mean 9% increase in a 100 bet is nothing. You said it yourself. Inconsequential basically worthless. I mean you can't lose. You totally understand the childish useless maths, what could go wrong? Or B?

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:15 pm

Here is the fake website screenshot you posted earlier
Attachments
Screenshot_20210125-195538_Chrome.jpg

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:38 pm

firsttango wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:52 pm
Paddy Pumpkin wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:38 pm That is not the data....that is the page to request the data.

You still cannot supply the source data. Additionally the screenshot on your earlier posr is just that a screenshot from a non verified source which has been shown to be incomplete data.

If you have total faith in your data and your abilities with statistics and data maybe we should have a little bet. Will you give me the same 9% advantage that you thought was insignificant in the excess deaths numbers?

Please explain how my earlier screenshot graphic and the link to the Spanish Gov website from whence it came is a Non Verified source? Its the Gov website....I can show it to you but you really need to try and understand that it is an official Gov Url... :shh:

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/estadEstudios/ ... nes_11.pdf


Oh give it a rest with your childlike mathematical riddles.

From the PDF link you posted


La incorporación de fallecidos al Indice de defunciones tiene un decalaje temporal. Aunque los datos
se actualizan mensualmente, no todas las defunciones que se producen en un mes dado pueden ser
incorporadas al mes siguiente; algunas lo hacen más tarde.


Could you please translate to English for the readers?

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firsttango
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby firsttango » Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:48 pm

Again, please answer my question to your accusation that my graphic was from a NON Verified Source......second time of asking...

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:13 pm

I posted the screenshot...Joe Biden and all now. That was not the original government website.

I asked for the source and you posted a Link to another website. I wanted the source so I could see all the details.

Now we have all the details as you posted the link to the original PDF....so please translate the passage for the readers...after all it explains the data so it is really important....if you don't translate it I can only presume you don't understand it. Either your Spanish is not good enough or you don't understand the significance of the words once translated

So come on translate the passage


La incorporación de fallecidos al Indice de defunciones tiene un decalaje temporal. Aunque los datos
se actualizan mensualmente, no todas las defunciones que se producen en un mes dado pueden ser
incorporadas al mes siguiente; algunas lo hacen más tarde.

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firsttango
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby firsttango » Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:24 pm

Paddy Pumpkin wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:15 pm Here is the fake website screenshot you posted earlier
That is not a fake website it's the Post Image site where you convert a screenshot into a thumbnail for posting at forums......what they advertise is beyond anyones control

https://postimages.org/

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firsttango
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby firsttango » Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:26 pm

Paddy Pumpkin wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:13 pm I posted the screenshot...Joe Biden and all now. That was not the original government website.

I asked for the source and you posted a Link to another website. I wanted the source so I could see all the details.
You are now blatantly lying........could a Moderator please look at my original screen shot of the pdf with link to Spanish Gov website and adjudicate as to whether in any way shape or form my screen shot differs from the PDF at the Government website in the link directly below my initial post and whether I posted a link to any other website other than the Official Spanish Gov site........Thank you.

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:10 pm

Ok I except it is totally original and not manipulated in anyway so since it is the original why not tells us what it says

Come on translate it for us.....have you something to hide?

El Cid
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby El Cid » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:27 pm

OK you two. I have had enough of this petty arguing and slagging off each other.

It is achieving nothing and it has to stop NOW.

ANY FURTHER POSTS FROM EITHER OF YOU CONTINUING THIS POINTLESS ARGUMENT WILL BE DELETED.

I hope I have made myself clear.

Sid

katy
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby katy » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:30 pm

Back on topic. A lengthy but interesting transcript in La Republica of an interview with the CEO of Astra Zeneca, not only covers the recent row between them and Brussels but a lot about the manufacturing process and logistics.
Worth a read if you are pro or anti Vax.

“So maybe I need to give you a little bit of explanation as to how we manufacture those vaccines. Essentially, we have cell cultures, big batches, 1000-litre or 2000-litre batches. We have cell cultures inside those batches and we inject them with the virus, the vaccine, if you will. Then those cells produce the vaccine, it’s a biotechnology protection. Now, some of those batches have very high yield and others have low yield. Particularly in Europe, we had one site with large capacity that experienced yield issues. So it's essentially a question of when you scale up to the level we are scaling up to - something like this that's never been done. We are scaling up to hundreds of millions, billions of doses of vaccines at a very high speed".

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/ ... 284349628/

olive
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby olive » Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:45 pm

Well they had better get some more cooking pots and batches going and quick as Ursula demands her share.

There must be an irony in there somewhere.( we need them more than they need us)

Joking apart, the issue surely was the delay in the EU approving vaccines.

Lavanda
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Lavanda » Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:56 pm

I think so, Olive. The way I read the report is that the AstraZenica vaccine was not approved in the EU as quickly as in the U.K. and still has not been approved in the USA.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby El Cid » Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:00 pm

katy wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:30 pm Back on topic. A lengthy but interesting transcript in La Republica of an interview with the CEO of Astra Zeneca, not only covers the recent row between them and Brussels but a lot about the manufacturing process and logistics.
Worth a read if you are pro or anti Vax.
Good link Katy. It's a long read, but he brilliantly explained the complicated process involved, both technically and financially.

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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Free at Last » Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:02 pm

Lavanda wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:56 pm I think so, Olive. The way I read the report is that the AstraZenica vaccine was not approved in the EU as quickly as in the U.K. and still has not been approved in the USA.
The European Medicines Agency did not receive an application for conditional marketing of their vaccine from Astra Zeneca until 12 January 2021, so they can hardly be said to have been slow approving it (reports have said it is expected to be approved by the end of this week).

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-r ... University.

Lavanda
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Re: Coronavirus

Postby Lavanda » Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:01 pm

Thanks for the clarification.


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