Vaccine war with EU

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Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:00 pm

Lavanda wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:04 pm "Why has the Delta variant taken hold in the UK when so many people have had their first shot."

Paddy, pay attention, please. The vaccine doesn't work in the way in which vaccines usually work. This one will not stop you getting it or passing it on. Beachcomber believes it is some deadly mix of unknown substances. I am beginning to think it's just water. Might as well be for all the good it's doing. The vulnerable have gone. The rest of the people use their immune system to fight the virus. That's it.
Lavanda please pay attention to up to date accurate infornation. The vaccines were not initially tested to see if they stopped transmission and hence no claims were made that they stopped transmission. Initial vaccine aim was to stop people getting seriously ill and this is what was tested first.

However data now shows that the vaccines do stop people catching the virus and also stop people passing on the virus.
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/mount ... -does-work

However if you still believe it is just water then please explain why in Israel the 14 day incidence rate is less than 1 per 100k. Also explain why a country with a population of 9 million hasn't had a single Covid death in the last 7 days. If the vulnerable have gone then how come that fall off in deaths is happening at the same time as the vaccination. Also how come in Spain the 40 to 49 year olds are now the majority of the Covid deaths?

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Lavanda » Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:22 pm

No idea.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Lavanda » Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:27 am

Paddy, I wrote that I was beginning to think the vaccine is just water rather than I believe it actually is water. I’m not convinced by ‘the data’. Last Summer the virus seemed to die a natural death. Cases were low and the crisis appeared to be ‘over’. I travelled to the U.K. without difficulty and ballyhoo and travelled around seeing friends and people were out and about. All talk was of the virus acting like a normal respiratory illness; active in the winter and during months when people were squished together indoors and not active at all in the warmer months when people were outside.

That there are fewer infections and cases now is attributed to the vaccine but can scientists separate out the effects of the vaccine, of lockdown, of climatic changes, of natural progressions, er … no. Politically, all progress is put down to the vaccine. Maybe. Maybe. However, we do not yet have sufficient information to make any firm conclusions, I feel. In time, we will.

Paddy Pumpkin
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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:32 pm

Yes it died out last summer in Europe because the lockdowns squashed it to almost a total reset and it had to grow from almost zero again. Additionally the virus had more difficulty spreading because everyone stayed outdoors. Once the weather got cooler and went back indoors it started spreading. Have a read of the spread of Covid in Navarra to see the direct effect of allowing indoor dining which allowed and prohibited indoor dining at various stages and the direct increase in Covid numbers as a result of allowing indoor dining.

If you don't think the vaccines are the direct reason the infected numbers are falling then please explain why vaccinated countries have the largest fall? Additionally why did Israel have the fall in numbers first?

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby pepe jose » Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:35 pm

Interesting to see how it spikes after the euros. 20000 scots in London without masks will be a good indicator.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Mon Jun 21, 2021 9:37 pm

katy wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:44 pm Perhaps because many countries scarcely test for variants, some not at all. (They do not have the resources) Check it out. Europe will be quite happy to carry on blaming AZ and the UK. Boris will be quite happy if the EU closes to Brits.

UK is on the last leg now with more than half of adult population had 2 doses. I would ask the question why is the variant not spreading overseas when some countries vaccination rates are abysmal.
Can you explain where on a positive Covid test it says which variant of Covid the patient has?
Which countries in particular have abysmal vaccination rates? Maybe then I could answer the question regarding variants spreading.
How does a country determine what % of positives are due to a specific variant?

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby katy » Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:10 pm

Variants are detected by sequencing, many countries do not do it or very little, some just 0.5%. The UK and a couple of other countries are very good at identifying them. As I said check it out!

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Lavanda » Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:48 pm

Interesting to read what is happening in Israel:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/0 ... -covid-19/

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:19 pm

5.5 million people vaccinated. Pfizer has a 95% efficacy in trials and post trial data.

That means it reduces the number getting ill who ha even vaccinated by 95%. In January Israel had 10k per day cases. A vaccine with 95% efficacy would reduce that to 500 per day. Israel has about 100 cases per day now, so I am not sure what the point of the article is other than to say the vaccine is working as expected.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:38 pm

katy wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 10:10 pm Variants are detected by sequencing, many countries do not do it or very little, some just 0.5%. The UK and a couple of other countries are very good at identifying them. As I said check it out!
Yes some countries tries as low as 0.01% (Nepal) but none in the EE below 0.5%. There are 4 countries in the EU with a higher percentage of genome sequencing than the UK. Check it out!

I guess the UK needs to be so vigilant because they are using a vaccine in a way that other countries won't use it. Hence they need to keep a very close eye in thing,

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Pamela1 » Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:59 pm

Last time i looked several countries are spacing vaccines more than 3 weeks apart including Spain.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:10 pm

Spain is not using AZ anymore for 1st shots. Spain stopped AZ with over 60s.

The other vaccines Spain are using as per the gaps as recommended by the manufacturer.

The UK is still relying predominantly on AZ and still delaying 2nd dosis longer than recommended by AZ

This could be why the UK has a higher covid incidence rate than Spain even though the UK has administered more vaccinations.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Lavanda » Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:41 pm

Dad had his first Pfizer in January. I am taking him to get his second dose on Saturday - a gap of over six months. Is that normal in the U.K.?

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Enrique » Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:13 pm

Hi Lavanda,
"is that normal in the U.K".........NO...........The January first vaccines where followed by seconds at twelve weeks later ...........I'm guessing your Father's data slipped through the system.
All my best learning experiences start with a problem I need to solve.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby katy » Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:23 pm

Lavanda wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:41 pm Dad had his first Pfizer in January. I am taking him to get his second dose on Saturday - a gap of over six months. Is that normal in the U.K.?
Not at all normal, they have cut the gap now average 8 weeks. Nearly everyone in my village had Pfizer and “cases” have been less than 3 per 100,000 all year. At first it was 3 weeks, then 12 now between 6 to 8 weeks.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby elusive » Wed Jun 23, 2021 6:48 pm

3 weeks to the day for pfizer in the axarquia

Lavanda
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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Lavanda » Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:15 pm

So will the six month gap mean the vaccine is useless for my Dad? It was his choice to be vaccinated, after all.

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Flashman » Wed Aug 11, 2021 3:26 pm

Lavanda wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:15 pm So will the six month gap mean the vaccine is useless for my Dad? It was his choice to be vaccinated, after all.
no not useless but he would have been at an increased risk compared to having second dose within 3-4 months, but we are still talking fractions of fractions of percentage points of risk. hope he got his second dose and continues to be well

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Re: Vaccine war with EU

Postby Lavanda » Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:51 pm

Thanks Flashman. He is really well with no bad effects at all.


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