Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby firsttango » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:40 am


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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Beachcomber » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:16 am

Latest figures from MHRA Yellow Card reporting system in the UK:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -reactions

Now over a thousand deaths and nearly three quarters of a million adverse reactions.

Since It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported these figures are probably understated.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:26 am

I am interested to know about the under reporting of serious reactions.

How was that 10% figure estimated and by who? Also how would that estimate compare to under reporting in other medications?

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby markwilding » Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:49 am

I agree, Who are estimating that figure? It also doesn't make sense. If there are serious reactions, the first thing someone would do is head to the doctors to have it seen to. The reactions are either not so serious so doesn't warrant any action or people are suffering badly in their homes without doing anything.

There may be the odd person not wanting to bother anyone but I doubt very much that it's anywhere close to 90 per cent who don't. Anyway, all deaths would need investigating. There also the point that most people would would alert to the possible problems that might occur and the very slight risk of death.

Personally, I had no problem taking the vaccine after weighing up the risks. However, that doesn't mean I wasn't alert and didn't watch out for the possible adverse affects and would have been down the doctors at the first sign that something was wrong

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby katy » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:04 pm

I agree, Who are estimating that figure? It also doesn't make sense. If there are serious reactions, the first thing someone would do is head to the doctors to have it seen to

Agree Mark. Surely GPs etc report. Even though reported still not proven. When millions of people have been vaccinated there has to be deaths and other conditions jab or not.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Beachcomber » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:07 pm

By whom? The UK government from a report in 2019. It is still shown on its web site and If the figure were not currently valid presumably it would have been amended or removed.

"It is estimated that only 10% of serious reactions and between 2 and 4% of non-serious reactions are reported. Under-reporting coupled with a decline in reporting makes it especially important to report all suspicions of adverse drug reactions to the Yellow Card Scheme."

https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/y ... ng-in-2018

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby markwilding » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:29 pm

The report is from 2019 So much has changed since then. in 2019 hardly anyone in the UK had heard of Covid 19 if any. Most adults wouldn't have even thought about taking a vaccine unless they were older and taking a flu one or one to be able to travel.

There is so much more information now.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:37 pm

I am sorry I didn't know this was a forum for correcting English. I read the T&Cs of the forum and it asks for your best efforts in English and not to worry if it's not perfect. English is my third language so I apologise if it's not perfect. It's one thing I really like about Spain is that the people here are really helpful and don't mind the small mistakes I make in Spanish. I make quite a lot as I mix the words with the other 3 languages I speak.


Any way we digress and should stay on subject.

I am getting more confused. Earlier in thread it was stated that 'The figures don't mean much anyway' in relation to government statistics.

So when should I trust the government and their statistics and estimates? I mean should I believe them that 10% is a good estimate?

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby markwilding » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:41 pm

Especially as those statistics are pre-pandemic and refer to a problem in 2018 and reported in 2019.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Beachcomber » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:06 pm

The question was
Paddy Pumpkin wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:26 am How was that 10% figure estimated and by who? Also how would that estimate compare to under reporting in other medications?
which I have answered.

If anyone disbelieves any of these figures or the reports or considers them to be out of date or invalid perhaps they should take it up with the governments concerned. They have all lied to and deceived the public so much over the past year so, I agree, it is impossible to believe anything any one of them chooses to utter or publish.

Meanwhile the figures from the EMA continue to climb:

http://www.adrreports.eu/en/search.html

but perhaps they are also wrong.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Beachcomber » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:47 pm

For anyone who likes statistics the EudraVigilance database is particularly interesting because it breaks down the victims of adverse events by age, country, sex and whether the victim is a healthcare worker.

Perhaps the most surprising statistic is that females in the 18 to 64 age range seem to be more at risk of becoming a victim:

EMA.jpg
There would appear to be a particular reason for this but I have not yet researched it fully.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby chrissiehope » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:00 pm

Probably because that is a group who are care workers or similar ?
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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:18 pm

Beachcomber wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:47 pm For anyone who likes statistics the EudraVigilance database is particularly interesting because it breaks down the victims of adverse events by age, country, sex and whether the victim is a healthcare worker.

Perhaps the most surprising statistic is that females in the 18 to 64 age range seem to be more at risk of becoming a victim:


EMA.jpg

There would appear to be a particular reason for this but I have not yet researched it fully.
Perhaps the most surprising statistic is that females in the 18 to 64 age range seem to be more at risk of becoming a victim:

18 to 64 year olds account for about 60% of the population so we would expect them to be the most prevalent in the data.

There is no indication from the data in the slide of the breakdown of age and sex. So for example all of the females in the data could be aged over 65. It's unlikely but it could be, we just don't know from the data provided in the slide.

Additionally the data in the slide has no comparison of the % of victims compared to the % of vaccines distributed to that cohort.

So without further data I wouldn't agree that females aged 18 to 64 are most at risk from adverse reactions. It may simply be because that age group has the most people vaccinated and there may actually be very few victims that are female in that age group.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby markwilding » Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:26 pm

Beachcomber wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:06 pm The question was
Paddy Pumpkin wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:26 am How was that 10% figure estimated and by who? Also how would that estimate compare to under reporting in other medications?
which I have answered.

If anyone disbelieves any of these figures or the reports or considers them to be out of date or invalid perhaps they should take it up with the governments concerned.
Why?
It is you using the figures to back up your argument
What I have countered Is that the figures are pre- COVID so it is very unlikely that anyone having read them, would agree with your point they are relevant to the current pandemic for the reasons I pointed out in an earlier post.

I might be interested if you could post more detailed figures regarding people who have had any of the COVID vaccines, not everyone who has died or had an illness after taking it.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Beachcomber » Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 am

When I see posts that start with 'Tom said, Richard said, Harriet said' I tend to lose the will to live. Given the current contrived situation it is already too easy to lose that will anyway. However, the fact that Richard's diminutive gets censored by the ADC beep machine tends to lighten one's mood. It does mine, anyway.

There is far more information and breakdown of data on the EudraVigilance site than that one screenshot. I just posted that as an example of the apparant anomaly that women seem to be disproportionately affected. A basic use of the search facility will reveal many more statistics.

Details of the number of doses delivered for the UK are shown on the links that I have already posted and those for Europe can be found at:

https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/exten ... uptake-tab

I am sure if anyone is that interested they could find this information for themselves rather than having to be taken by the hand and led through the process step by step.

Given the reluctance for anyone to admit that an adverse event was as a result of the injection, it is likely that the reporting rate is far lower than even the most recent estimate by the MHRA or any other reporting site.

Nonsensical denials of the prevalence of deaths and serious injuries from the injection and deliberate obfuscation of the inconvenient information that manages to find its way onto official web sites by people who do not want to hear the truth do not help anyone especially not those who wish to decide for themselves whether or not to be injected rather than rely on one-sided propaganda spouted by governments, media, political has-beens, failing personalities and so-called social media influencers all with a vested interest.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Sat May 01, 2021 8:27 am

Apologies I simply thought that given you made the statement

'Perhaps the most surprising statistic is that females in the 18 to 64 age range seem to be more at risk of becoming a victim:'

I presumed you had done all the leg work to research all the data that was necessary to come to that conclusion. This conclusion was not possible from that data on the slide. Rather than me dig through things I thought it would be easier just to ask you as you must have had all the data already.

I have done some digging myself and in the link you provide to the EU data I cannot find any breakdown of vaccination by age. Do you have any data on this?

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Beachcomber » Sat May 01, 2021 9:52 am

As far as I know there is no breakdown of dosage by age in the same way as there is for adverse reactions. If that is a failure it is on their part not mine.

The adverse reaction site is very comprehensive and easy to navigate and there are too many graphs to post them all but it only takes a few seconds to access each one. Each graph shows more than double the amount of adverse reactions for women and for the 18 to 64 age group than for the rest put together.

Maybe I am reading it incorrectly but I understand that to indicate that the risk for women in the 18 to 64 age group is disproportionately high.

Perhaps you would like to check out the rest of the graphs and explain where I am going wrong.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Sat May 01, 2021 5:17 pm

The EU population breakdown is roughly
0-18...20%
18-64....60%
Over 64 ...20%

Say that is 100 million people (round number to make maths easier)

Sub 18 are generally not getting vaccinated so therefore of the vaccinated population (80 million people)
60 million of 80 million = 75%. So we would expect to see 75% of the cases of adverse effect to be 18 - 64. However from the slide only 60% of the cases are sub 64 (10,631;of 17,625). So 18 to 64 are underrepresented .

It could be that of the 12,434 women who have adverse effects 6.020 are over 64 (unlikely but it could be).
That would mean 6,414 are 18- 64. Therefore of the total 17,625 adverse reactions 36% could be women 18-64. (6,414 of 17,625)

In the vaccinated population 75% are 18 to 64...that should be roughly 50/50 female so 37.5% female.
As discussed above 36% of adverse reactions could be female 18 to 64. Therefore females aged 18 to 64 are pretty much what you would expect (36 vs 37.5)

However all if that is conjecture be because we don't have the data of the breakdown of the vacinated % of the population by age and sex and the % of vaccines distribured to eache age and sex cohort.

I make no conclusion that it is a failure to provide that data because I am not qualified to know if that data is important or indeed if it is statistically significant to display and that too much data may cloud the picture.

The only thing can be drawn is that without that data we cannot conclude that women aged 18 to 64 are over represented.

Hopefully that explains it. If any point is not clear let me know.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Beachcomber » Sat May 01, 2021 6:13 pm

You have not correlated that with the rest of the graphs and information on the web site.

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Re: Pro Innate Immunity or Anti Vax - Adverse reactions, Etc

Postby Paddy Pumpkin » Sat May 01, 2021 6:58 pm

They key information is not on the website....at least I can't find it if it is.

Correlation is the connection or relationship between two things. Since your statement was about the relationship between age and sex then we need the breakdown of vaccines distributed by age and sex (or some proxy that correlates in behaviour) so that we can correlate the relationship. Can you suggest something that correlates the behaviour that is in the data?

Since the statement was about an age and sex cohort being over represented. All the other information and graphs are irrelevant unless those graphs and information can serve as a proxy.

So we either have the direct information or a proxy.

What we need is actual numbers of doses or % of total that gives me this information

I would need the following
Under 18 no. of dosis to men
Under 18 no of dosis to women
18 to 64 no of dosis to men
18 to 64 no of dosis to women
Over 64 no of dosis to men
Over 6r no of dosis to women

Under 18 no of AR (adverse reactions) to men
Under 18 no of AR to women
18 to 64 no ofAR to men
18 to 64 no of AR to women
Over 64 no of AR to men
Over 64 no of AR to women


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