Vaccinations in Andalucia
Andalucia has administered 3.584.751 doses since the beginning of the campaign of which 1.178.838 are second or single dose vaccinations. 391.130 doses were included in this weeks Monday to Wednesday delivery (12-05-2021). This is a drop on previous week's large delivery. Previous week's were 593.260, 324.090, 272.710, 260.860, 368.060, 176,250, 117.250, 157.960, 175.430, 178.620 163.300, 133.600 and January's average was 73.000. AstraZenica was a modest 56.500 similar to Moderna's 55.000 in comparison to Pfizer's 279.630 delivery this week. For the second week running there was no Janssen. The current rate of administration has increased to about 65.000 (based on average over last week) per day. At this daily rate, it will take 7 months to vaccinate (two doses) all Andalucia. Delivery was expected to substantially increase in second quarter and it had not until this first week in May. Delivery is expected to substantially increase again in third quarter of 2021 as shown in the graph on the Coronavirus Vaccinations page Data to 13-05-2021
Vaccination Priority Groups
|Group 1||Resident and staff of care homes.|
|Group 2||Front line health personel|
|Group 3||Orther health personel|
|Group 4||Dependent persons|
|Group 5A||Over 80s (dob 1941 or earlier)|
|Group 5B||70 to 79 yrs (dob 1942 to 1951)|
|Group 5C||60 to 69 yrs (dob 1952 to 1961)|
|Group 6||Esencial services - 6A Police Security Emergency services, 6B Infant school Teachers, 6C Primary and Secondary School teachers.|
|Group 7||Medically high risk persons.|
|Group 8||60 to 65 yrs (dob 1956 to 1961)|
|Group 9||51 yo 59 yrs (dob 1962 to 1970) following 5C (started 06-05-2021)|
|Group 10||To be determined|
Vaccination complete by age
|Age group||One Dose||Complete|
|greater 80||100 %||100 %|
|70 to 79||95 %||62 %|
|60 to 69||79 %||6 %|
|50 to 59||19 %||6 %|
|24 to 49||11 %||5 %|
|18 to 24||5 %||2 %|
|16 to 17||0.2%||0.2 %|
|Total||34 %||13 %|
Percentage of Andalucia by age group that have received first dose and that have received complete vaccination program. Data to 03-05-2021
In the graph above we have plotted the weekly delivery to Andalucia of the vaccination doses from the suppliers; Pfizer (light green), Moderna (light blue) and Astra Zenica (dark green) and Janssen (red) and the total (dark blue) as solid lines. The a future estimations are plotted as dotted lines.
The horizontal lines represent three target cases. In purple; two doses for entire Andalucia population. In grey the over 16s less 5% which allows for those declining vaccine, those already tested positive under 55 yrs only needing one dose and no shows. In green '70% of the adult population' which is a frequently quoted summer target by national and regional government. The Janssen vaccine numbers have been doubled for comparison since only one dose is administered.
The future estimation is not official data but based on ad hoc comments by German. French & Spanish officials of the unpublished EU delivery schedules. We calculated the predictions in Jan 2021 and updated them 28-03-2021 when Thierry Breton, head of purchasing vaccines for the EU, stated on 21-03-2021 on French television that the forecast is to deliver between 300 and 350 million doses via the EU in the second quarter of the year. Spanish Health Minister Carolina Darias said on 21-03-2021 in interview with La Sexta that in the second quarter of the year Spain will receive 5.5 million doses of the Janssen vaccine.
04-04-2021 Thierry Breton told French newspaper Le Parisien that “Fourteen million doses were delivered to the EU in January, 28 million in February and 60 million in March. For the next quarter, we will increase to 100 million in April, May and June. Then 120 million in the summer, and we will reach a rate of 200 million from September.” This 'news' confirms the (blue) total forecast line on the graph above.
Andalucia is 1.7% of EU population and 17% of Spain’s population.
Spain has divided the vaccine administration into three phases in the Plan Estratégico de la Vacunación Antigripal/Covid-19 (02-12-2020 Update 4 26-02-2021) which is modified slightly by Salud for Andalucia and published as Plan 24x7 (12-01-2021). the latest edition is Programa de Vacunación Covid-19 en Andalucia (updated 21-04-2021).
Consejería de Salud - Health department of government of Andalucia- Vaccination plans.
Phase One Care home residents (79k) and staff (36k). First line health professionals (73k). Other health professionals (95k). Dependent persons living at home (209k). Jan to March.
Phase Two Over 70s (824k) planned for first dose during 15-03-2021 to 25-04-2021.
The national plan phase 2 also includes Other health professionals under 56 yrs. 60 to 69 year olds. Under 60s in conditions of risk. 56 to 59 year olds. 45 to 55 year olds. April to June.
Phase 3 To be determined July to September.
Registration with SAS (Andalucia Health Service for registration
Those who are not registered in the Andalucia Health Service, such as those resident with private health insurance, should register to be included in the COVID-19 vaccination programme. You can download a PDF aplication form here and take it to your local health centre.
If you are already registered with the Andalucia Health Service, you can check your details online to ensure your phone number is up to date. You do so online at ClicSalud+.
Vaccination news updates
04-05-2021 Andalucia President, Juanma Moreno said the Andalucia government would draw up plans for mass vaccination of 1 million per week. The statement was mocked on social media as it was conditioned with 'if the doses arrive' however he must have known something. The following day a record 593.260 doses arrived, nearly double the previous weeks delivery.
02-03-2021 Andalucia parliament approved the government plan for mass vaccination. The plan is for using 747 locations including large spaces such as football fields and bullrings, including volunteer helpers. This plan is to have the potential to administer up to 500.000 doses a week. Of course the actual rate will depend on the rate of delivery from the EU. Estimates for this are not published. Does the Andalucia government have access to delivery estimates not in the pubulic domain? The Andalucia health councilor Jesús Aguirre, said in parliament on 04-03-2021 that 'until April or May' deliveries will not be sufficient to cover the plan'. A quick calculation based on current rates to end of May and then 450k per week therafter will complete the vaccination of all Andalucia end of January 2022.
The Andalucia health councilor Jesús Aguirre also said that 43% of over 80s were now vaccinated with one dose and 5% with two. 50% of teachers, and in care homes 99% have received one does and 85% both.
23-02-2021 Vaccinations have been distributed to Group One; residents and staff of senior citizen residences and front-line health professionals and continued with front line then all hospital staff. These groups is now essentially complete. Interesting that Salud are reporting 87% administration in hospital staff, suggesting a 13% refusal. The vaccination continues with other health professionals such as dentists. Dependent people living at home and their professional carers has also started in parallel with Group Five; the 412k over 80s oldest first, now reaching about 25%. Starting this week are teachers and followed by police and security services.
10-02-2021 Andalucía has received its first doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine. In total this was 34.500 doses which is expected to be the weekly delivery for the next few months. This is Andalucia share by population of the Spain / EU supply. 34.500 doses will increase by about 50% the current 85.000 Pziser & Moderna Supply. It can also be stored at between 2 and 8 centigrade, Spain has decided not to vaccinate over 55s with this vaccine, which is currently being offered to hospital staff.
There is also some dispute as to the ability to administer the sixth dose from a Pfizer vaccine vial which has never been clarified. Andalucia was administering 5 until 06-01-2021. Luckily the EU contract was per dose not per vial.
After a slow start Andalucia and other regions by late January caught up with the supply and are now 'waiting' for their Monday delivery. This supply depends on the EU wide contracts signed by the EMA. Exact delivery schedules are not public in the EU Vaccination strategy but a detailed analysis suggests that in Andalucia (and EU) the current delivery rate will continue until the end of the first quarter 2021. It will then pick up in second, and ramp up in third and fourth quarter. This analysis makes Marin's comment impossible and Moreno's and Illa's comment rather optimistic, we calculate it might reach a third by summer. Delivery delays recently announced in January did not significantly affecting these figures.
24-01-2021 Andalucia is currently receiving 70.000 a week and this is the Q1 target which Pfizer says will be met in spite of a recent shortfall. Ie 1.7m leaving 3.3m for delivery in Q2 and Q3 at the same rate.
23-01-2021 Andalucia has administered 221.635 doses (up to 22-01-2020) since the beginning of the campaign on the 27-12-2020. this is 88% of the 251.420 delivered. 22.161 are second doses. This leaves 29.785 (less wastage) of doses in reserve. For the last two days Andalucia has been using its (questionable - see below) 20% reserve policy which now stands at 12%. At this rate (8.209 per day) it will take 6.0 years to vaccinate (two doses) all Andalucia.
These vaccinations have been distributed to the First Group; residents and staff of senior citizen residences and front-line health professionals and continues with all hospital staff. The central government updated in 22-01-2020 'Covid-19 Vaccination Strategy' (Estrategia de Vacunación COVID-19, Ministerio de Sanidad). The vaccination will continue with other health professionals such as dentists and dependent people living at home and their professional careers. The Second group will be the 412.869 over 80s who live in Andalucia.
17-01-2021 The second doses (21 days) began to be administered, people have received both doses and been issued with a QR code certificate.
19-01-2021 Regions received their fouth weeks supply of Pfizer and a small quantity of Moderna vaccine. Total number of vaccine doses delivered to Andalucia so far is 251.420 and the number administered is 210.065 (84%). At this rate (8.079 per day) it will take 6.1 years to vaccinate (two doses) all Andalucia. On Sunday 17-01-2021 the second doses (21 days) began to be administered, 20.836 people have received both doses and been issued with a QR code certificate. The number of vaccine doses distributed to all Spain's regions is 1.346.400, the number administered is 1.025.937 (76%). 15.642 people have received both doses. Andalucia Data 21-01-2021 and Spain Data 20-01-2021
Andalucia policy was to be vaccinating 80% of doses received, holding back 20% to guarantee the second dose supply. A 'responsible and strategic decision' (Manuel Moreno). This 80% reserve policy was not adhered and a few weeks later 30.000 was the declared reserve. The pattern is now; Delivery Tuesday, reach 80% by Wednesday, 91% by Saturday, Sunday minimal administered. Currently a typical day's administer is 13.000 second doses and 3.000 first doses. On Monday/Tuesday 8/9-02-2021 129k doses were delivered, above the usual 70k weekly.
10-01-2021 The Andalucia health minister reported that 1.57% of people (in care homes) had refused the vaccine offered and has not updated this statistic since. Update: Anecdotal evidence of refusal by health workers suggests the rate is higher.
Spain has ordered 20,873,941 doses (via the EU contract) of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and has the option to triple that amount, however is only due to receive 4,591,275 doses (22%) by the end of March 2021. This equates to delivery of 356k a week of which 19% or 70.000 doses a week are being distributed to Andalucia.
09-01-2021 There is a dispute as to the ability to administer the sixth dose from a Pfizer vaccine vial. It alleged that Andalucia had not ordered sufficient 'point zero' (no waste) syringes. This naturally questions the delivered doses statistic. Since the contract is doses not vials the EU are adressing this issue with PÇfizer.
08-01-2021 EU announced it had signed another contract with Pfizer for another 300m doses (200 ordered and 100 optional) 75m to be delivered in second quarter and 125m in 3rd and 4th quarter. (the optional 100m to be determined).
06-01-2021 EU approved Moderna vaccine on German Health minister told reporters that Germany would get 2m doses in Q1 2021 and 50m by end of 2021. The corresponding for Spain would therefore be 1m in Q1 and 27m by end of 2021. Corresponding for Andalucia is 180k in Q1 (15k per week) and 4.9m 2021 (125k per week).
04-01-2021 The vice-president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juan Marín, aid today that “so far 26,000 people in the region had received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine.” This was the first time that details of the rate of vaccinations had been published for Andalucia, which received 70,000 doces a week ago. In other words only 37% of available doses have been administered. A percentage better than Spanish average of 11%, but would still take 12 years to vaccinate (two doses) all Andalucia.
The aim, he said, is to have around 800,000 people vaccinated by the end of January, although the rate of administering the jabs depends on supply which "on a global level is being quite slow". As only 70,000 weekly delivery has been promised to Andalucia by Madrid from its EU quota, this estimate is rather optimistic.
The president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juanma Moreno, said last weekend that he “hoped to have half of the Andalusian population of eight million people vaccinated by early next summer.” This hope, also qualified by rate of supply, was also wildly optimistic.
01-12-2020 The EU reported in December 2020 that the distribution will start progressively, ‘and all adults should be able to get vaccinated by end of 2021’. ‘Depending on pace of vaccination and natural infections the pandemic might be controlled by end of 2021 in EU. This statement drew little attention at the time of publication. The EU contacts are Moderna 160m, AstraZeneca 400m, Sanofi-GKS 300m, Janssen, Pfizer-BioNTech 600m and CureVac 405m plus negotiations Novavax 200m.
27-11-2020 the EU announced that it had signed a contract with Pfizer for 300m doses (delivered over Q1, Q2, Q3?) Based on EU population of the 300m doses 30m (10%) would be for Spain and 5m would be for (17%) for Andalucia. (Andalucia is 1.7% EU)
Consejería de Salud - Health department of government of Andalucia- Vaccination plans.